Singapore-based financial blog that aims to educate people on personal finance, investments, retirement and their Central Provident Fund (CPF) matters.

Friday, 14 April 2017

Hu Li Yang Gravity Line Investment Strategy

13:22 Posted by cheez No comments

Hu Li Yang 30 Stock Investing Strategies
胡立阳投资股票三十招

What is a Gravity Line? 什么是地心引力线?
A stock's Gravity Line is the average between its 30-day moving average and 72-day moving average.
Gravity Line = (30-day SMA + 72-day SMA)/2
Why this weird number?
I have no idea, it was mentioned in HLY's book that he researched about it and found these 2 numbers gave the best results
一个股票的地心引力线是它的 (30日移动平均价 + 72日移动平均线)/2

Use of Gravity Line? 如何利用地心引力线投资?
1) When the stock price falls to 20% below Gravity Line and
2) Stock Volume greater than the average volume for the past 5 days
This is a signal that the falling trend has reversed and it is time to buy.
This means that the stock is heavily undervalued and the spike in volume could mean that someone has spotted this and is buying into the stock.

1)当股价已跌到低于地心引力线至少 20%
2)当天的交易量高于前5天的平均交易量
这是一个买入的信号。这代表股票已跌倒谷底,有行家正在大量买入,这是这股票将反弹的征兆。

What is a Taser Line? 什么是高压电线?
This is a price line that is 20% above the stock's Gravity Line
Taser Line = Gravity Line x 120%
A stock price that falls below this line tends to continue falling.
一个股票的高压电线是它的(地心引力线 x 120%)
当一个股价已从高于高压电线的价格区跌过它地高压电线,这代表这股票将会持续下滑。


Use of Taser Line? 如何利用高压电线投资?
1) When the Taser Line starts to go flat and
2) The stock price fall below the Taser line
This is a signal that the rising trend has reversed and it is time to sell.
Description: The stock price hits the Taser Line (because it rose too fast), hence it needs to fall back a little (attached by the Gravity Line below it)

1)当高压电线开始走平
2)股价从高于高压电线的价格区跌过它地高压电线
这是一个卖出的信号。这代表股价已到了最高点,开始要下滑了。

Wish to learn more techniques from the Master himself?
Join him in his upcoming seminar in Singapore!
想多向大师学习吗?机会来了! 胡立阳将在新加坡举办一场讲座会。

Hu Li Yang Investing Seminar 2017
胡立阳投资讲座 2017

Learning Points:
1) Is the current market condition suitable for investing or should I wait?
2) What techniques should I use if I wish to invest currently or in the future?
3) What strategies does Mr Hu use that I can use?
4) What temperament should I possess in order to succeed in the stock market?

Speaker: Mr Hu Li Yang (胡立阳先生)
The Godfather of Asian Stock market, Hu Li Yang, is back in Singapore to share with us his view on the investing opportunities and risks in year 2017! Spend 1 full day learning from the Man himself as he would discuss his views and how investors should position their portfolio for the rest of 2017!

Mr Hu previously held the position of Vice-President of Securities in Merrill Lynch in the 1980s, then the biggest securities firm in America. In 1986, he gave up his high paying job and return home to Taiwan to develop and educate its people on investing in the stock market. Since then, he has been regarded as the 'Godfather of Asian Stock Market' and has gone on to published best-selling books on stock market investing.

He accurately predicted that:
1) the Dow Jones Index will rebound on 2009 March,
2) the Taiwan stock market will exit a bear market on 2009 November,
3) Gold's temporary peak on 2009 December,
and many more!

拥有 ‘亚洲股市教父’ 和 ‘故事神童’ 职称的胡立阳回来了。在这次的讲座中,胡立阳将与你分享他对未来一年股市的动向和如何从中赚到钱。 除了与胡立阳老师有近距离接触之外,你也将学到他花了毕生心血专研出来的股票分析技巧和手法。

胡立阳曾是美林证券行的第一位华人副总裁,在 1986 年,他放弃了在美国的高薪职位,返回了台湾,并大力地推广台湾投资热潮和教育人们如何投资。从此以后,胡立阳就得到了 ’亚洲股市教父‘ 职称,也成功了推出很多关于投资的书。

胡立阳曾经成功的推测出许多股市中的低谷与高峰,比如说,2009年道琼斯和台湾股市从低谷反弹起来,2009年黄金价格已达高峰等。

Event Details:
Date: 8 April 2017, Saturday (4月8日2017年,星期六)
Location: Maybank Kim Eng 48 North Canal Road, Singapore 059305
Time: 10.00AM  6.30PM (registration starts from 9.30AM)
Price: $688 (U.P. $738)
The seminar will be conducted in Chinese

Click HERE for more information on the event!
Click HERE to sign up for the event!
想知道跟多关于这讲座的资料请安这
想参加这讲座会的请安这

Limited Seats Only! Sign Up Now!

Monday, 10 April 2017

Why is it call a Bull Market and a Bear Market?

11:29 Posted by InvestmentStab No comments

Ever wondered why is a dropping market call a bear market and why is a rising market call a bull market?
There is no 100% confirmed story, but the one we present below is one that has been highly circulated over the years.
Apparently, it has something to do with the bears and bulls attack their prey.
Think for a moment how these animals attack their prey.

Recommended Post: Singapore Retirement, Re-Employment, CPF Withdrawal Age

Bull Market
How does a bull attack its prey?
It charges at it, the uses its horns to thrust its prey up.
The prey getting swing upwards is similar to a rising stock market - upwards

Bear Market
How does a bear attack its prey?
It swings its 2 arms down at the prey.
The prey gets hits downwards, similar to a dropping market - downwards

Yes! This is true!
You can Google why is it call a bull or bear market, or we can save you the trouble and you can read it from Investopedia

Recommended Post: Yes! There is interest on your CPF Housing Grant, BUT...

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Monday, 3 April 2017

Active or Passive Way of Investing?

17:24 Posted by InvestmentStab 1 comment
Active Investing versus Passive Investing

This is the battle that is happening on Wall Street since 1975 when John C. Bogle started the first fund company, The Vanguard Group, in the United States (US) offering to mom-and-pop investors low-cost index funds that aim to mimic the US index returns and charge extremely low cost for it (like 0.1% of the asset per year).

Before 1975, active trading (or active fund management) was the only thing available to investors who wished to get someone to managed their money. These active funds seek to achieve above market returns for their investors, and in return they charge high fees (from 2% to 20% of the profits per year).

At the beginning, everyone was skeptical of the idea of an Index Fund, because it gives investors only market returns, not spectacular returns above the market rate. People are greedy and just cannot take it that they are going to get average returns. They want the big returns that active management promises.

Fast forward to 2017 today, 42 years since the first US index fund was launched, we have more than 1000 index funds in the world tracking different indexes, excluding index ETF that trades on the stock exchanges. Funds managed by these passive investment products/tools surpassed the amount managed by the actively-managed investment funds - investors are pulling funds out of these funds fast and investing them into index funds. This happened because the active funds are no longer able to provide above market returns after cost. It is becoming better to be average than to be sub-par.

However, that is not to say that active investing is dead. While many have failed, there are also those that have succeeded and are still doing relatively well. George Soros, Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett are just some examples of people who did really well actively investing their money.

What is Active Investing?
Active Investing means actively looking for good companies to invest in, hoping that it will perform better than the market and hence earn you a higher return. You can do this yourself or by hiring a professional money manager to do the job for you.

Basically, you are looking at all the stocks in the market and looking for undervalued companies to buy or overvalued companies to sell short. Instead of buying the whole market and achieving average returns, you hope to get above market returns by identifying and buying those companies that will outperform the average.

What is Passive Investing?
Passive Investing means passively investing your money in buying the entire market via an index (think S&P500). You do not care how each stock performs and you do not really care which company makes it into the index and which are dropped. All you need to know is that over the long term, the stock market is and will go up and that your money will grow with it - just not at an above the market rate.

You can do this yourself manually, buying up all stocks in the index in the proportion of their market capitalisation (you have to be very very rich to do that) and re-balance it yourself every half year or you can just invest in an index fund that is managed by a group of professional managers who charge really low fees (because they don't really need to do much except re-balancing the fund every half year).

With Passive Investing, you are not trying to find the needle in the haystack, you are buying the whole haystack. Instead of looking for a really good company, you buy all the companies because the majority of them are going to do well that they will cover the bad ones and also make you good returns.

S&P500 price chart from 1950 to 2013
Are you now slightly convinced that Passive Investing works?

What are the differences?
Personally, these are the difference to me

Active Investing VS Passive Investing

Active Investing (Self)Passive Investing
Monitoring Consistently monitoring of
stock performance

See at the start and close of the
market OR
don't even look at the market at all

Strategy Research, buy, then sell when
the time is correct

Buy and hold until you need money
then you sell

Aim
Beat the market before cost
Beat the market after cost

Get market returns before cost
Less than 1% below market returns
after cost
Lifestyle Quite stressful, especially if
you are losing money on
your positions

Sleeps like a dead log because over
the really long-term, you know your
money will grow

Fees
Incur lots of trading cost
If you are investing with a
fund, they charge a 2% asset
management fee and a 20%
cut on your profits

Less than 1% of your assets' price
Effort
Have to do your own trading
research and analysis, hence
more effort

No effort other than finding a low
cost index fund provider

Which do we suggest?
I would like to quote from a famous fund manager Kenneth L. Fisher, who have written many New York Times Best Seller Investment Books: "Active if you know what you are doing, passive if you do not!"
That being said, a lot of you will think that because I have read so much and attended so many courses, I will know what I am doing.
Not to rain on your parade, but there has been research that says that monkeys throwing throws darts at random stock tickers could actually outperform experts financial managers (I'm serious, you can Google it).

Active Trading vs Long-Term Investing

Peek into the minds of some of the great investors in Singapore and learn from them their investing style, their investment criteria, and their views on investing!

Learning Points:
1) Is active trading more superior or is passive investing more superior?
2) What techniques should I use if I am an active trader?
3) What strategies should I use if I am a passive investor?
4) What is the risk for each of the techniques and strategies I use?
5) How can I improve my techniques and strategies?

Speakers: 
Ronald K- Self-made millionaire investor
- Featured in Sunday Times twice for his approach to investing
Gabriel Yap - Executive Chairman of GCP Global
Kelvin Seetoh - Business Analyst of 81 Holdings

Event Details:
Date: 8 April 2016 (Saturday)
Location: MND Auditorium, 9 Maxwell Road, SG 069112
Time: 09.00AM  1.00PM (registration starts from 8.30AM)
Price: $10 

*Refreshments provided

Click HERE for more information on the event!
Click HERE to sign up for the event!

Limited Seats Only! Sign Up Now!


Friday, 24 March 2017

Yes! There is interest on your CPF Housing Grant, BUT...

13:03 Posted by cheez No comments
No, this is not another pro-government blog post. Neither is this another anti-government post. This is purely a post to make sense of the article posted by The Online Citizen.
The Online Citizen recently published a post called 6 things you weren't told about the CPF housing grant.
We thought that the content was really new and surprising and that spurred us to do our own research if it was true - especially in current times where fake news is rampant!
The Investollo team had done a great job dissecting the CPF Housing Grant, and you can read more about what they have written:  CPF Housing Grant Increases.
We recommend reading their article first before reading ours - just in case you are lost.

Recommended Post: Singapore Retirement, Re-Employment, CPF Withdrawal Age

We did some digging, consulted experts and people with knowledge of the whole process.
We present our findings below.

1) Yes! There is an accrued interest attached to the CPF Housing Grant that you will have to return TO YOUR CPF ACCOUNT if you sold your house. (In case you missed that point, re-read the part we put in caps).
There is an accrued interest attached to the CPF Housing Grant, but at the end of the day when you sell your house, your CPF Housing Grant Money and the Accrued Interest goes Back Into Your CPF Account(s).

2) It is really difficult to find any information regarding the CPF Housing Grant and its 'terms and conditions'. To be exact, there is no such page on the internet.

3) If you die, your dependents do not need to repay the CPF accrued interest you have accrued. However, if the surviving spouse used his/her CPF savings to pay for part of the house, the accrued interest accumulated on the amount that he/she withdrawn will still need to be returned to CPF upon selling the house.

4) You cannot withdraw the grant out as part of your withdrawal. They will remain in your CPF as part of the non-withdrawable amount. This applies to accrued interest earned in your Retirement Account and other money you top up into your CPF.
For more information on this part, read up on our previous post: Fine Prints of CPF Money Withdrawal.

5) Point 3 in the article from The Online Citizen, it is stated that the Housing Grant levies a 2.6% accrued interest on the Grant money. It is actually 2.5% - the prevailing CPF Ordinary Account interest rate.

Recommended Post: Singapore Budget 2017 - GST Vouchers

Conclusion:

The CPF Housing Grant is still free money from the Singapore Government to you. The accrued interest accumulated in your CPF Housing Grant still goes back into your CPF Accounts. While it may reduce the amount of cash you can get from selling your house, at least the money is still with you - just in an account that you cannot touch until you are 55 years old. Although the way that it is structured is not very ideal, it does not change the fact that it is FREE MONEY from the Singapore Government that we can use in the future.

Remember to offer your opinions. If you don't put your two cents in, how can you expect to get change?

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Thursday, 16 March 2017

What is Contra Trading?

11:30 Posted by cheez No comments

Contra Trading, is the act of
1) buying a stock and selling it before payment date
2) selling a stock and buying it back before payment date

In Singapore, after a trade is executed, you have three working days before you need to pay the total cost of the stock.
If you buy a stock on Monday, you are only required to pay the total cost of the trade on Thursday.
However, in contra trade, you sell the stock before you are required to pay on Thursday.
You can sell on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday.
This effectively means you do not have to fork out a huge amount of money to pay for the stock.
In this scenario, you earn or pay the difference between the selling price and the buying price.

Recommended Post: Singapore Retirement, Re-Employment, CPF Withdrawal Age

Example 1: Normal Buying and Making a Profit
I buy 1,000 shares of ABC company at $3.00 per share on Monday.
Total I will need to pay $3,000 for these shares on Thursday (excluding brokerage fees)
On Wednesday, I sold the shares for $3.10 each.
I will earn $0.1 x 1,000 shares = $100 (excluding brokerage fees)
I earn $100, and I do not need to pay $3,000 for the shares that I have bought.

Example 2: Normal Buying and Making a Loss
I buy 1,000 shares of ABC company at $3.00 per share on Monday.
Total I will need to pay $3,000 for these shares on Thursday (excluding brokerage fees)
On Wednesday, I sold the shares for $2.90 each.
I will lose $0.1 x 1,000 shares = $100 (excluding brokerage fees)
I will need to pay to my brokerage firm $100 for the losses I incurred for the trade
But I do not need to pay $3,000 for the shares that I have bought.

Example 3: Shorting a Stock and Making a Profit
I sell 1,000 shares of ABC company at $3.00 per share (I do not own any shares previously).
Total I will take $3,000 in cash and I will need to delivery 1,000 shares of ABC (excluding brokerage fees)
On Wednesday, I buy back the ABC shares for $2.90 each.
I will earn $0.1 x 1,000 shares = $100 (excluding brokerage fees)
I earn $100, and I do not need to deliver the 1,000 ABC shares that I sold.

Example 4: Shorting a Stock and Making a Loss
I sell 1,000 shares of ABC company at $3.00 per share (I do not own any shares previously).
Total I will take $3,000 in cash and I will need to delivery 1,000 shares of ABC (excluding brokerage fees)
On Wednesday, I buy back the ABC shares for $3.10 each.
I will lose $0.1 x 1,000 shares = $100 (excluding brokerage fees)
I will need to pay to my brokerage firm $100 for the losses I incurred for the trade
But I do not need to deliver the 1,000 ABC shares that I have sold.

Recommended Post: Can Crowdfunding ever be Secure?

Do note that although you are allowed to do Contra Trading in Singapore, there is an additional requirement if you are short-selling and buying back within the 3-day period.
You are required to "borrow" the stock you are short-selling from SGX (you need to have an account approved for short-selling) before you can short-sell.

Revolution to Trading Singapore Stocks 
using Contra Squeezing Techniques

Learning Points
1) How to perform contra trades using contra squeezing strategies
2) How to pick the right stocks for short-term trading
3) How to spot important entry and exit points for trading positions
4) Risk Management for Contra Trades
5) Sneak Peek into new category of Growth stocks

Speaker: Ronald K- Self-made millionaire investor
- Featured in Sunday Times twice for his approach to investing

Event Details:
Date: 25 March 2016 (Saturday)
Location: City Index Asia Pte Ltd, 6 Battery Road
Time: 10.00AM  3.00PM (registration starts from 9.30AM)
Price: $10 

*Lunch is provided

Click HERE for more information on the event!
Click HERE to sign up for the event!

Limited Seats Only! Sign Up Now!

Free Mystery Gift
for the first 20 registrants

Wednesday, 15 March 2017

Crowdfunding: Can it ever be secured?

Now you might be thinking we are hypocrites right now, with all the contrasting views on one topic. Well, that is precisely the reason why we setup this site. It is to provide our two cents on finance related topics so that you can have a more holistic view on issues that impact your finances.

Crowdfunding has been around for quite some time and Singaporean investors are definitely aware of this alternative option that they can use to improve their investment returns (if you are new to crowdfunding, you can read more here). There are also some common names that we have heard in this space as well. Examples are Funding Societies, CoAssets and MoolahSense.

Recommended Post: When Crowdfunding Fails

Compared to USA, in Singapore, investors do not have the option of raising equity through crowdfunding. Hence, there is only crowdfunding of debt present here.

However, just as our previous post shows, there are many risks to crowdfunding which warrants the higher return rates. Just as how debt can be secured or unsecured, one interesting advancement of crowdfunding is the move towards collateralisation. In many other countries, real estate crowdfunding is the preferred alternative investment as there is the presence of collateral in the form of property or land. A simple search on Google can prove that. The vast supply of land and apartments as compared to fewer approved loans made this even more attractive. Hence, the speed of obtaining funding and lower loan requirements are compensated from the higher rates of return. Though, this will certainly be lower than unsecured crowdfunding.

Image result for collateral

Given the relatively stable property market in Singapore, secured real estate crowdfunding will provide a good return with lower risks. Interestingly, CoAssets has recently incorporated a real estate subsidiary that focuses asset backed crowdfunding and was announced in January. Hopefully, it will be released soon for retail investors to have another investment alternative.

Recommended Post: Singapore Retirement, Re-Employment, CPF Withdrawal Age

In our view, this is definitely an attractive option. Just think about it. Having a 8% to 10% rate of return (slightly outperforming the average STI returns - 8.4%) while enjoying the safety of a collateral in the form of a property that is comfortably valued more than the loan amount.

If you wish to know more, do read more on crowdfunding or visit CoAssets' website.

Remember to offer your opinions. If you don't put your two cents in, how can you expect to get change?

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Tuesday, 7 March 2017

When Crowdfunding Fails

20:07 Posted by cheez No comments

Before I proceed, let me make it absolutely clear that I have nothing against crowdfunding. I believe the basic principle behind crowdfunding is sound, and, in a perfect world, it would boost innovation and provide talented, creative people with an opportunity to turn their dreams into reality.
Unfortunately, we live in the real world, and therefore it’s time for a reality check:
Reality /rɪˈalɪti/
noun
  1. The state of things as they actually exist.
  2. The place where bad crowdfunded ideas come to die.
While most entrepreneurs may feel this mess does not concern them because they don’t dabble in crowdfunding, it could have a negative impact on countless people who are not directly exposed to it:
  1. We are allowing snake oil peddlers to wreck the reputation of crowdfunding and the startup scene.
  2. Reputational risks extend to parties with no direct involvement in crowdfunding.
  3. By failing to clean up the crowdfunding scene, we are indirectly depriving legitimate ideas of access to funding and support.
  4. When crowdfunded projects crash and burn, the crowd can quickly turn into a mob.
This is my argument: Entrepreneurs, developers, and enthusiasts have to be committed to weeding out bad apples in crowdfunding, for the greater good of our industry.

But Wait, Crowdfunding Gave Us Great Tech Products!


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