Singapore-based financial blog that aims to educate people on personal finance, investments, retirement and their Central Provident Fund (CPF) matters.

Wednesday 27 May 2020

The Best Month To Invest In STI Is...


We are using the SPDR STI ETF (ES3.SI) as a benchmark for STI.

Data

Return = (closing price - opening price) / opening price

Return = (closing price - opening price + dividend paid) / opening price


Recommended Read: CPF Account Effective Interest Rates

Analysis: Best Month
The best month is........... APRIL!
Over the past 13 cycles, STI experienced only 2 non-positive Aprils, with the worse being only -1%.

The second best month is........... March!
Over the past 13 cycles, STI experienced 3 negative Marches.

Guess we just missed the best time to get in and invest in STI. 😉

In addition, with or without factoring dividend returns does not seem to affect the top 2 months of best return.
Though it did make Februaries' return looks a lot better.


Analysis: Worse Month
Without factoring dividend return, the worse month is........... AUGUST!
Followed by February and May.

Factoring in dividend return, the worse month is........... May!
Followed by Jue and August.

Seems like the best time to avoid STI is August and May.
Guess the old saying 'Sell in May and go away' does apply to Singapore markets.


Disclaimer:
Do not make any investment decisions based upon materials found on this website.
Investment Stab is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and is not qualified to give financial advice.
Investors are reminded to do their own due diligence and invest according to their risk appetite.



Recommended Read: Why I Will Not Invest In Companies Like SMRT

Hey You!

If you have a money related story about you or your relatives' that you want to share, let us know in the comments below or email us at investmentstab@gmail.com.
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Monday 25 May 2020

CPF Account Effective Interest Rates



Is it always good to have a lot of money in your CPF?
Maybe, maybe not!

As the amount of money in your CPF account increases, the amount of interest you get from CPF increases.
However, the effective interest rates you are getting from CPF also decreases.

What is Effective Interest Rates?
Effective Interest Rates (EIR) is the total interest you are paid on the total amount of money you have.
Eg: Total CPF Interest for the year divided by your total CPF balance (express in percentage).

For money in your Special, Medisave & Retirement Account (SMRA),
a) each account will earn a 4% interest on its money
b) first $60,000 will earn an extra 1% interest
c) those age 55 & above will earn an extra 1% interest on the first $30,000

Below is how the interest curve will look like


Before age 55
The first $60,000 in your CPF will earn an interest of 5% (excluding Ordinary Account)
The rest of the money in your CPF SMRA will earn 4% interest.
Because the first $60,000 is earning an extra 1%, your effective interest rate on your CPF will always be above 4%.
However, the effective rate will keep decreasing to close to 4% as your SMRA grows larger.


Recommended Read: What Happens After I Join A CPF LIFE Plan?


After Age 55
The first $30,000 in your CPF will earn an interest of 6% (excluding OA)
The next $30,000 in your CPF will earn an interest of 5% (excluding OA)
The rest of the money in your CPF SMRA will earn 4% interest.
Because the first $30,000 is earning an extra 2% while the next $30,000 is earning an extra 1%, your effective interest rate on your CPF will always be above 4%.
However, the effective rate will keep decreasing to close to 4% as your SMRA grows larger.



CPF Ordinary Account Bonus Interest
PS: It is actually more complex than this because there is an Ordinary Account section that also earns this extra 1%.
We are unable to however show the graphical relationship because adding in OA would make the whole picture harder to understand

So we included an image from CPF below to make it clearer 😉.
Source: CPF



Recommended Read: Why You Should Hate Whole Life Insurance

Hey You!

If you have a money related story about you or your relatives' that you want to share, let us know in the comments below or email us at investmentstab@gmail.com.
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Thursday 21 May 2020

Why I Will Not Invest In Companies Like SMRT

Source: Wikimedia

Why We Chose SMRT For Analysis?
It is delisted, so this can't and won't be a stock recommendation, but just an analysis of the business.
But, this is just an example.
Take note more of the characteristics listed instead of the company itself.

SMRT FY2019 Results
SMRT has been privatised by Temasek Holdings since 2016, but they still publish their earning results on their website.
Source: SMRT



Why Not To Invest?

1. High Capital Expenditure
Trains, buses, and cabs; they are expensive.
SMRT needs to buy these assets in order to run its business.
It then needs to invest consistently to maintain these assets at operational capacity.
High capital expenditure (CapEx) means less money (free cash flow) for investors.

Let's compare 2 companies, 1 with low CapEx and 1 with high CapEx.
For every $100 each company retains as profit, it needs to set aside a portion of the money to replace its assets some years later, eg; replace a machine 10 years after it is bought.
Some companies like SMRT may need to set aside more profits each year to cover future CapEx.
Some companies like mobile app companies, can aside less profits each year to cover future CapEx.
After all, a server definitely cost less than a whole bus.



It is always better to invest in a company that needs to re-invest less of its profits in order to continue its normal operation.
Because what it does not need to re-invest back into its business, it can be paid out to shareholders as dividends or share buybacks.
If it can re-invest the profits into expanding its business, then that's okay too.

Recommended Read: Why You Should Hate Whole Life Insurance

2. Public Good
You hear outcries when public when companies like SMRT makes record-high profits.
Because people think public transport is a need, and should not make extremely high profits.
It is precisely because of this "outcry" that companies like SMRT cannot charge higher prices (even though they are a duopoly with SBS) or be allowed to make extremely high profits.
You don't see people complaining Apple should lower their prices just because they made record profit.
But you definitely hear people complaining SMRT should lower transport fares when they make record profits.


3. Limited Growth
In addition to 'Public Good' being a 'growth limitation', SMRT is also not a natural huge growth company.

Geographical Restrictions
Given a city-state of 5.5 million people, there's a limit to how much higher growth can be.
An average person won't take more train or bus rides more than necessary.
But an average person can definitely buy an app or two on the App Store or Play Store, and more when new apps come along.

Scalability
To ferry additional 100 passengers, SMRT probably needs to buy 1 more bus (linear scale).
But, for a mobile app to add another 100 users, it just needs to buy another server, which is a lot faster than buying a bus (exponential scale).



Conclusion
We are not saying to condemn all companies that possess the characteristics we listed above.
But it might be best to avoid these companies?
At least Warren Buffett (the world's greatest investor) did.
He focused on investing companies with low CapEx in addition to a bunch of other criteria like consistent growing earnings, low debts, etc..
Maybe you should too?



Disclaimer:
Do not make any investment decisions based upon materials found on this website.
Investment Stab is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and is not qualified to give financial advice.
Investors are reminded to do their own due diligence and invest according to their risk appetite.



Recommended Read: What Happens After I Join A CPF LIFE Plan?

Hey You!

If you have a money related story about you or your relatives' that you want to share, let us know in the comments below or email us at investmentstab@gmail.com.
Alternative, you could fill in the form below for us to contact you.
Story Form


Dear Reader!
As we progress towards the next phase of our journey, we would like to find out what would make you like us even more.
So we hope you could help us fill in a short survey of 8 questions (4 of them are MCQs) so that we can help better tailor our content to you.
Survey


Remember to offer your opinions. If you don't put your two cents in, how can you expect to get change?
Have feedback? Tell us now!

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Monday 18 May 2020

Why You Should Hate Whole Life Insurance


The main reason why you should hate whole life insurance is that IT IS EXPENSIVE.
And we are going into detail in this article, just how expensive it is to buy a whole life insurance plan compared to a term life insurance plan.

For a start, let's compare the real cost of whole life and term life insurance plans.
We will get a whole life that covers the insured for life, and a term life that covers the insured until age 65 (the general ballpoint mark used).
We got the 3 cheapest insurance quotes for each insurance plan from MoneyOwl.

Insured Person Details:
Gender: Male
DOB: 01/01/1995
Smoker: No
Premium Type: Annual
Sum Assured: $300,000
Critical Illness Coverage: Nope
Source: MoneyOwl

The Comparison

Annual Basis
A whole life insurance plan is on average 10x more expensive than a term life insurance plan.
You could save 90% of the premiums by just opting for a term life insurance plan.

Whole Package
If you bought the term life insurance, you would have paid on average a total of about $15,000 in premiums.
If you bought the whole life insurance, you would have paid on average a total of about $110,000 in premiums.
In total, whole life insurance is about 7x more expensive than term life insurance.


Recommended Read: What Happens After I Join A CPF LIFE Plan?


Why People Buy Whole Life Insurance?
Most people that I know buy whole life insurance because of the cash bonuses.
After paying years of hefty insurance premiums, we want to see some returns on our money.
By buying whole life insurance, a portion of the premiums is invested in the insurance companies' funds.
These funds, if lucky, could perform extremely well and can sometimes return us more than the premiums we paid.
Under that situation, when we surrender our policy, we can get our money back at a small profit.
This appeals to our un-financially-wise brain.
That's how many of us fall prey to this penny wise, pound foolish mistake.
The returns on dollar terms, in the thousands or hundreds of thousand, may seem like a good return on investment.
But, if calculated on a percentage term, the returns may not look at attractive as they seem.



Maths Of Whole Life Insurance
Let's take the cheapest term life and whole life insurance plans we got from MoneyOwl for comparison.
A term life consists of protection portion only, while a whole life consists of protection and investment portions.

The term life insurance cost $27.35 per month.
The whole life insurance cost $375.00 per month.

$27.35 covers only the protection portion
$375 covers both the investment portion and the protection portion.
From this, we can guess that $375 will be split into $27.35 (protection) and $347.65 (investment).

If you took that $347.65 and invested in the Straits Times Index (ES3.SI) via a Regular Shares Savings plan, it would have grown to $194,000 by the end of the 25 year period.
This is based on the 4.58% growth rate we calculated from our previous article:
Save in CPF or Invest in SPDR STI ETF?
If the whole life insurance's bonus cannot even hit 4.5%, you might as well passively invest it into the stock market.

If you think about it, when the insurance companies invest your premiums, they are going to invest in funds that invest in stocks, bonds, or REITs.
None of these assets you cannot invest in by yourself.
Furthermore, most of these funds are actively managed, which tend to give lousier returns in the long-term than passive investments (aka buy-and-hold stock market indexes).



Conclusion
Buy insurance for protection, not investment.
Get over the mindset that "if I don't get any money back on my policy, I am on the losing end."
Because you are not!
But if you keep wanting to get money back from your insurance plan, you will probably be on the losing end.



Recommended Read: What Happens After I Join A CPF LIFE Plan?

Hey You!

If you have a money related story about you or your relatives' that you want to share, let us know in the comments below or email us at investmentstab@gmail.com.
Alternative, you could fill in the form below for us to contact you.
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Dear Reader!
As we progress towards the next phase of our journey, we would like to find out what would make you like us even more.
So we hope you could help us fill in a short survey of 8 questions (4 of them are MCQs) so that we can help better tailor our content to you.
Survey


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Thursday 14 May 2020

What Happens After I Join A CPF LIFE Plan?


Source: CPF

What happens after I join CPF LIFE?
Members will choose their CPF LIFE plan when they wish to start receiving their payouts between the age of 65 to 70.
They can choose between 3 plans listed above.



What Happens If I Chose The CPF LIFE Standard Plan?
Members who chose the CPF LIFE Standard Plan, the following will happen to their CPF account:
  1. All savings in members' RA will be used as the annuity premium for CPF LIFE.
  2. Premiums will be paid into the Lifelong Income Fund.
  3. Interest earned on the premiums (4% + 1% + 1%) will be credited into the Lifelong Income Fund.
  4. Monthly payouts will be paid from the Lifelong Income Fund for as long as members live.
  5. If members passed away, all the money in their CPF and their CPF LIFE premiums that have not been paid out as monthly payouts will be given back to the members' loved ones as 'Bequest'.


Recommended Read: The 4% Shortfall In Your CPF Retirement Fund


What Happens If I Chose The CPF LIFE Basic Plan?
Members who chose the CPF LIFE Basic Plan, the following will happen to their CPF account:
  1. 10% to 20% of the savings in members' RA will be used as the annuity premium for CPF LIFE.
  2. Premiums will be paid into the Lifelong Income Fund.
  3. Interest earned on the premiums (4% + 1% + 1%) will be credited into the Lifelong Income Fund.
  4. 80% to 90% of the RA savings will remain in the members' individual RA.
  5. Interest earned on the RA savings (4% + 1% + 1%) will be credited back into the members' individual RA.
  6. Monthly payouts will be paid out of members' RA first up till the age of 90.
  7. From 90 years old onwards, members will receive monthly payouts from the Lifelong Income Fund for as long as members live.
  8. If members passed away before 90 years old, all the money in their CPF and their CPF LIFE premiums will be given back to the members' loved ones as 'Bequest'.
  9. If members passed away after 90 years old, their CPF LIFE premiums that have not been paid out as monthly payouts will be given back to the members' loved ones as 'Bequest'.



What Happens If I Chose The CPF LIFE Escalating Plan?
Members who chose the CPF LIFE Escalating Plan, the following will happen to their CPF account:
  1. All savings in members' RA will be used as the annuity premium for CPF LIFE.
  2. Premiums will be paid into the Lifelong Income Fund.
  3. Interest earned on the premiums (4% + 1% + 1%) will be credited into the Lifelong Income Fund.
  4. Monthly payouts will be paid from the Lifelong Income Fund for as long as members live.
  5. The monthly payouts will start lower but increase by 2% each year.
  6. If members passed away, all the money in their CPF and their CPF LIFE premiums that have not been paid out as monthly payouts will be given back to the members' loved ones as 'Bequest'.



In case you didn't want to read, we've made a video for you. 😉



Recommended Read: Save in CPF or Invest in SPDR STI ETF?

Hey You!

If you have a money related story about you or your relatives' that you want to share, let us know in the comments below or email us at investmentstab@gmail.com.
Alternative, you could fill in the form below for us to contact you.
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So we hope you could help us fill in a short survey of 8 questions (4 of them are MCQs) so that we can help better tailor our content to you.
Survey


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Monday 11 May 2020

Can I Change My CPF LIFE Plan?

Source: CPF 

There are 3 CPF LIFE Plans: Standard Plan, Basic Plan, and Escalating Plan.
If you picked one of the plans (eg; Standard Plan), can you change to another plan in the future, say to Escalating Plan?

Yes, yes you can.
But you can only make a change to your CPF LIFE plan once, and it must be within 30 days of your policy letter date.
After that, you cannot make the switch any more.

How Do I Make The Change?
For instructions on how to make the CPF LIFE plan change, click HERE.

Can I Cancel My CPF LIFE Plan?
Yes, yes you can.
However, you can only cancel if you opt-in voluntarily into CPF LIFE.
CPF LIFE is on a voluntary opt-in basis ONLY for members who are

  • Singapore citizen or PR born before 1958; or,
  • Have less than $60,000 in their RA 6 months before reaching the payout eligibility age

If members met the criteria above, they are allowed to cancel their CPF LIFE plan.


Recommended Read: The 4% Shortfall In Your CPF Retirement Fund

Hey You!

If you have a money related story about you or your relatives' that you want to share, let us know in the comments below or email us at investmentstab@gmail.com.

Dear Reader!
As we progress towards the next phase of our journey, we would like to find out what would make you like us even more.
So we hope you could help us fill in a short survey of 8 questions (4 of them are MCQs) so that we can help better tailor our content to you.
Survey


Remember to offer your opinions. If you don't put your two cents in, how can you expect to get change?

Have feedback? Tell us now!

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Saturday 9 May 2020

Warren Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting Is Overrated

Warren Buffett, the world's greatest investor, held his annual Berkshire Hathaway Annual General Meeting (AGM) on 2nd May 2020.
The event, also known as 'The Woodstock of Capitalism', has people from all walks of life tuning in to hear what the legendary investor has to say about the economy and the stock market.

We sat through the whole 5+ hour session to hear what the man has to say.
This is not the first time we participated in the event; we have tuned in for several years now.
We conclude that the event is way overrated.
This is an unpopular opinion - we would be surprised if anyone thought the same way as we did.
As avid readers of books on Buffett, Buffett's annual reports, and a watcher of his interviews and AGMs, we believe we have made a fair assessment or opinion on the matter.
That's not to say that the event should completely be ignored.

Who Should Pay Attention To The AGM?
If you are an investor in Berkshire Hathaway, then you should definitely pay attention to the AGM because he will explain the various businesses' performance, the succession plan, Berkshire's stock investments, and the buybacks he will or will not do.

Who Can Ignore The AGM?
If you are an investor hoping to get some insights on what he has to say about investing or the economy, there is almost nothing new every year.
You can save that 5 hours of your life and research to find wonderful companies to invest your money in.

Warren Buffett is a Great Capital Allocator
He is no doubt one of the greatest capital allocators in the world.
As the CEO of Social Capital, Chamath Palihapitiya, once said: "great CEOs are great allocators of capital."
Warren Buffett is a great financial capital allocator - puts cash into good use to generate high returns.
Mark Zuckerberg is a great human capital allocator - puts talent into good use to generate high returns.
Jeff Bezos is both a great financial and human capital allocator - that's how you have Amazon.


Repeating Themes
As someone who reads, watches, and learns from Warren Buffett, we can tell you definitely almost without fail, that there are repeating themes or topics in every shareholder meetings or interviews he has.
We can even list them out:
  1. Is the stock market overvalued/undervalued?
  2. Will the America/global economy do well next year?
Is the Stock Market Overvalued/Undervalued?

Question: How Buffett became insanely wealthy?
Answer: by buying wonderful businesses at fair or cheap prices.
Does he know how the economy is going to fair next year? - Nope
Does he know if oil prices will ever recovery? - Nope
Does he know what companies he will buy next? - Nope
Does he know when he will do a massive share buyback? - Nope

The only thing he knows, and how he usually answer is, he and Berkshire are interested in making large deals to make full use of Berkshire's cash.
But if nothing good comes out, they are perfectly comfortable with holding cash until such an opportunity comes up.
He does not care if the market is overvalued or undervalued, neither does he pays attention to it (or so he says), he simply looks to buy for wonderful businesses managed by wonderful people at fair prices when the opportunity comes knocking.

If Buffett is not buying any shares or even buying back Berkshire's shares, does it mean the market is overvalued?
Nope. It just means that prices are not low enough for him to make a move, or there are businesses inside Berkshire that can make better use of the cash that they have.
Also, because Berkshire's largest business is in insurance, Berkshire needs to have a sizable cash reserve to pay out those claims.
That is why Berkshire has a huge cash position on its balance sheet.
Doesn't necessarily means ' Berkshire has huge cash reserves = everything overpriced in the stock market'.


Will The America/Global Economy Do Well Next Year?

"Will recession end the US economy?"
"Will COVID-19 end the US economy?"
"Will China end the US economy?"
"When will the US recover?"
"Is the US still competitive globally?"

These are some of the standard questions that will come out almost every time in interviews or AGMs.
Buffett's answers to these questions are almost always the same: "I don't know."
Yup, he doesn't know the exact answer, neither does anyone else you ask.

But he will almost always follow up with the answer: "Over the long-term, we will do really well. Stocks will do really well. The America/global economy will do really well."
Then he will proceed to give us a history lesson on how many wars, pandemics, crises, etc. that the US and the world went through and how the economy despite these challenges, will always recover and grow stronger.

TLDR: Ignore all the noise. Focus and invest for the long-term.

Conclusion
If you read books on Warren Buffett and learns how he invests, the AGM is pretty much not relevant to you because he is not going to tell you anything different from what you have read or learn.

What the AGM is though, is an update on Berkshire Hathaway's business, performance, and how it will be going forward.
If you are an investor in Berkshire Hathaway, you should pay attention to it.

Recommended Read: Save in CPF or Invest in DBS?

Dear Reader!
As we progress towards the next phase of our journey, we would like to find out what would make you like us even more.
So we hope you could help us fill in a short survey of 8 questions (4 of them are MCQs) so that we can help better tailor our content to you.
Survey


WSG can provide you with a career coach that can help you with that. 
And if you are looking for a free career coach, visit Workforce Singapore via the link below.
They can link you up with the career coach and you 
might be able to find new opportunities on their jobs portal.

Remember to offer your opinions. If you don't put your two cents in, how can you expect to get change?

Have feedback? Tell us now!

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Subscribe to our newsletter too in case social media platforms decide to stop showing you our content.

Tuesday 5 May 2020

Save in CPF or Invest in DBS?


This is part of our new series where we compare CPF against other financial assets.
Today, we are comparing CPF SA against DBS Bank (D05.SI) because one of our readers requested for it.
If there are other assets you would like us to compare against next, let us know in the comments below.

CPF Assumptions:
  • From Jan 2000 to Dec 2019, $100 is contributed into CPF via the Retirement Sum Top Up Scheme (RSTU).
  • The money earns 4% p.a. interest and the extra CPF interest is excluded for simplicity sake.
    In reality, the CPF returns would be higher than what is calculated due to the extra bonus interest (up to 6% in total).
DBS Bank (D05.SI) Assumptions:
  • From Jan 2000 to Dec 2019, $100 is contributed into a Regular Shares Savings (RSS) plan every month to buy DBS Bank (D05.SI).
  • Shares are bought at the end of the month closing price and the plan charges a 0.88% transaction fee (OCBC Blue Chip Investment Plan).
  • Money uninvested will be refunded back to your bank account.
  • Results include both dividends reinvested and not reinvested into DBS Bank.

Comparison


Analysis:
From Jan 2000 to Dec 2019, DBS returned 8.33% p.a. (dividends reinvested) and 8.04% p.a. (dividends not reinvested).
This is higher than the 4% return given by CPF.
However, out of 240 months, DBS total portfolio value is lower than the CPF balance almost half of the time, although most of it seems to be due to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
Nonetheless, it still means that DBS is highly volatile as an investment.
Over the long-term, however, it seems that DBS is still a better investment than CPF, although it comes with higher volatility and more periods of underperformance.

Rolling Annualised Returns of DBS
We calculated the 5-year and 10-year rolling returns of DBS share price (excluding dividend returns).
There were a total of 181 rolling 5-year periods and 121 rolling 10-year periods.
DBS share price returned between 0% to 5% per year the majority of the time.
That means dividends probably make up about 3% or more of the total returns, making the total 8%+ p.a.



Conclusion:
The goal of investing is to increase wealth over the long-term.
The DBS grew at rates double the 4% p.a. given by CPF.
Investing in DBS over the long-term should maximise your money.
Of course, past performance is no indication of future results.
The DBS Bank may, in the next 10 years, underperform the fixed returns given by CPF SA.
Also, if you have no stomach for volatility, and is risk-averse, then maybe CPF SA might be a better retirement plan for you than DBS.

Recommended Read: The 4% Shortfall In Your CPF Retirement Fund

Side Note:
Rolling annualised returns with dividends
While we managed to calculate rolling annualised returns for DBS's share price, we were still not able to factor in dividends as part of the calculation.
If you have a way to use Excel to calculate the rolling rate of return with dividends via XIRR, please let us know.
We will work on the calculations and publish it for you.

Tax benefits with topping up to CPF SA via RSTU
Every dollar you contribute into your CPF via the RSTU is eligible for a tax deduction - if you haven't maxed out your tax deductions.
So you'll get tax deductibles of $1,200 per year based on the above scenario.
However, if you need money, you can't withdraw it from CPF.

For investing in DBS, there is no tax benefit associated unless you contribute that $100 into your Supplementary Retirement Account (SRS), and then build your RSS with the money that's in your SRS.
If you need money, you can sell your DBS shares and get back cash.
However, if you withdraw before your retirement age, 100% of the amount withdrawn will be subjected to tax.

Uninvested money returned to your bank account
If DBS shares were trading at $22.80, only 4 unit of shares would be bought, which translate to a cost of $92.00 ($22.80 x 4 units + 0.88% commission).
That results in $8.00 uninvested and going back into your pocket.


Disclaimer:
Do not make any investment decisions based upon materials found on this website.
Investment Stab is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and is not qualified to give financial advice.
Investors are reminded to do their own due diligence and invest according to their risk appetite.

Dear Reader!
As we progress towards the next phase of our journey, we would like to find out what would make you like us even more.
So we hope you could help us fill in a short survey of 8 questions (4 of them are MCQs) so that we can help better tailor our content to you.
Survey


WSG can provide you with a career coach that can help you with that. 
And if you are looking for a free career coach, visit Workforce Singapore via the link below.
They can link you up with the career coach and you 
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Monday 4 May 2020

Death Rate for COVID-19 Could Be Higher Than The Reported Number


In March, newspapers were reporting that the global death rate for COVID-19 is about 2%.
Today, as of current 3rd May 2020 at 9 pm, that figure has risen to 7.0%.
Although most people still seem to be stuck with the notion that death rates below 10% are not a concern.
We are going to explain why rates are probably higher than 10% and why you should be concerned.

The Data
As of current 3rd May 2020, 9 pm, these are the COVID-19 cases worldwide.
Source from Worldometers.

Total Cases: 3,506,077
       Active Cases: 2,131,171
               Mild Condition:        2,080,561
               Critical Condition:   50,610
       Closed Cases: 1,374,906
               Recovered Cases:     1,129,713
               Death Cases:            245,193

The Misconception
Death Rate: Death Cases / Total Cases = 7.0%
The Death Rate is the deaths-to-infection ratio.
But to the everyday men and women, Death Rate is being misunderstood as 'the probability of me dying if I contracted COVID-19', which is technically incorrect.
Let me explain why.

Suppose a death rate of 7% means that the probability of me dying if I have COVID-19 is 7%.
If there is a death rate, then there must be a "Recovery Rate," which would be 'Recovered Cases / Total Cases.'
That means that COVID-19 has a "Recovery Rate" of 32.2%.
So, if I contracted COVID-19, I have a 7% chance of dying, a 32.2% chance of recovery, then where does the remaining 60.8% go?
60.8% is the total number of Active Cases, which means if I contracted COVID-19, I got a 60.8% chance of permanently lying on the hospital bed?
Don't make sense, right?

Recommended Read: The 4% Shortfall In Your CPF Retirement Fund

Introducing Schrödinger's cat
Source: Pixabay

What's a Schrödinger's cat?
It is an experiment that originated from Albert Einstein and devised by Erwin Schrödinger.
The idea is if you put a cat and a bowl of poison inside a box that you cannot see inside.
There are now 2 outcomes created:

  1. The cat did not eat the poison and is still alive
  2. The cat ate the poison and died.

Either of the 2 outcomes may have happened, but you would not know until you lift the box to see what happened inside.
The cat is, in a sense, both "dead and alive."

What Does This Have To Do With COVID-19?
If someone contracted COVID-19, that person is technically the Schrödinger's cat now.
The person could die from COVID-19 or recover from it.
But we would not know which outcome the person would end up in until we 'open the box', or in this situation until the case is closed.

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = Death Cases / Closed Cases
Out of the 1,374,906 closed cases, 17.8% of them were deaths (CFR = 17.8%).
What this means is that it is very much possible that someone who contracts COVID-19 has a 17.8% chance of dying.
If percentage-wise seems too foreign, let me convert it into human numbers: for every 6 confirmed cases, 1 will die.
Of course, the other way to look at it is that one has an 82.2% chance of recovering from it.
The Good News
Wait; what? There's good news?
Well, kind of?
In April, the CFR averaged 21% and started dropping to 17.8% during the last week of April.
The CFR could continue to drop, but it could also rise again.
SARS had a CFR of 11%, MERS had a CFR of 34.4%, COVID-19 could be anywhere in between.

So the best thing we can do is to stay at home, practice good hygiene, and grumble less.
And if you could and would like to help in this pandemic, please donate what you can to SGUnited.
If you have a neighbour you know struggling to make ends it, please donate to them the extra toilet paper, instant noodles, and can food you are keeping in the storeroom 😉.

Recommended Read: Save in CPF or Invest in SPDR STI ETF?

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