June 2020 ~ Investment Stab

Monday, 29 June 2020

7 Advice to Graduates from Apple's SVP of Software Engineering

Craig Federighi is the Senior Vice President of Software Engineering at Apple.
He oversees the development of iOS and macOS.

He's the guy that's been doing quite a fair bit of presentation and demo during Apple's various events.

He was invited to the University of California (UC), Berkeley, to share with the students on how to become 'him'.

1. Do What You Love

Focus on the journey, not the destination.

If you do what you love, things you do during your spare time becomes things "that help you develop in your career".

"If I have a moment on the weekend, I'm gonna be reading things about programming, I'm gonna be reading things about software or artificial intelligence, because that's what I love!"

2. Work With People Whose Work you Admire

Seek to work with people who creates/develops products or services that you love.

Craig was drawn to NeXT because of the company's products mesmerised him and he wanted to learn from and work with the people who developed these products.

NeXT was founded by Apple co-founder, Steve Jobs, and was eventually acquired by Apple.

Recommended Read: Answering 2 Common CPF “Complaints”

3. Pay Attention

Pay attention in class, in things going on in your life.

"During life..., you are, through your working life, through your school life, you are surrounded with all of these opportunities to learn. And not just in your field, not just in the thing that you think you're studying, but all those things peripheral to the field you are studying."

Craig actually carries a notebook and pencil to note down all the interesting things he sees.

4. Never Stop Acting Like The New One On The Team

It is ok if you don't know everything.
It is ok to ask for help or ask your team members to explain something to you, even if you are a senior member.

"It turns out, some of those questions are questions the team probably should have been asking themselves and wasn't. And so if you're asking, you might get some answers that everybody needs to hear."

Most importantly, asking these questions allows you the opportunity to keep learning and broaden yourself.

You don't want to make a fool of yourself during an important moment because you didn't clarify with your team members previously before the moment.

5. Team > Self

If you engross yourself into the team and what the team does, you will find that there are many ways you can help.

"When I join projects, I've decided that whatever the team's mission is, whatever we're trying to accomplish, I want to be part of making that happen. And I want to do everything that can be done to make that happen."

Craig once joined a team that was tasked with solely fixing software issues, which didn't sound like a cool thing he wanted to do.
But he ended up learning a lot from the experience because he adopted the mission of the team/project.

Focusing solely on what one will get out of the task will cause one to lose out on a lot of learning experience.

6. Commit, Focus, Reassess

Set a fixed number of years and commit yourself completely to performing that task.
Don't question yourself with "Should I go elsewhere?", "Should I transfer to another department?", "Am I doing the right thing?".

Imagine "if you got married, and every day you woke up and you say, 'am I married to the right person?'. Like that would not be a good relationship."

Instead, just commit yourself to what you have, give yourself an opportunity to experience it.
Set a deadline for yourself, like a year or four, before you step back and reassess what you want to do next.

Recommended Read: You Should Not Choose the CPF LIFE Basic Plan

7. Follow Your Heart

Trust your gut and listen to yourself.

"When I went to NeXT, I took a big pay cut to join a failing company. It didn't seem like too smart a move... But when I thought of making the decision on that (logical) side of the thing, I just got a feeling in my gut like, 'No! I want to be there!' ".

Bonus 8 Advice: Be Very, Very Lucky

At the end of the day, Craig recognises that this is just 1 person's experience, his experience specifically.
It worked for him, but it might not work for everyone.

He could just be lucky.
So, luck plays a very big part too!

The 50-Minute Video

If you have the time, here's the video on the 50-minute presentation he gave to students at the UC Berkeley.

You can jump to the 23-minute mark for the Q&A.
Before that is just the 7 points we listed above.

Recommended Read: The Best CPF LIFE Plan Is...

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The Best CPF LIFE Plan Is...

09:43 CPF-Related No comments

Previously we published an article on why You Should Not Choose the CPF LIFE Basic Plan.

Then we got readers coming back to us asking which is the best CPF LIFE plan.
So we decided to write about it to let our readers know. 😉

Numbers Behind the 3 CPF LIFE Plans

We used the CPF calculator to calculate the payouts and bequest one would get.

We used a male profile born in 1966 with 186k in his RA when he is 55 years old in 2021.

Fig.1. Source: CPF

Fig.2. Source: CPF

Basic Plan?

From a yield perspective, the Basic plan is definitely a good plan because more of the money is kept in the members' own RA, earning interest that goes back into their own RA.

But we don't think this is a good plan because what an average retiree should want is to have more in their monthly payouts, not more for their dependents.

If one's retirement plan is to ensure one has sufficient/maximised monthly income to sustain his/her lifestyle, then the Basic plan would not make sense.

The bequest for the Basic plan last longer than the other 2 CPF LIFE Plans (Fig. 2).
In exchange, the retiree gets a lower monthly payout forever.
So the higher yield plan benefits the dependents slightly more than the retiree.

You can read more about it on why You Should Not Choose the CPF LIFE Basic Plan.

You Should Not Choose the CPF LIFE Basic Plan

09:04 CPF-Related 2 comments

What's CPF at old age for?
It is to support you in your retirement.
If it's not able to do that well, maybe it's not suitable for you?

What is CPF LIFE Basic Plan?

Basically, you are taking lower monthly payouts so that your dependents will get more of the money when you passed on.

If what you want is a comfortable retirement, why you leaving bulk of your money for your dependents who should be in charge of their own life/retirement?

Why I Think CPF LIFE Basic Plan is a Bad Plan

Lower Monthly Payouts
It is as simple as that.

The Standard plan provides higher monthly payout.
The Escalating plan provides growing monthly payout.

Why do you not want to have a higher monthly payout for yourself?
Especially if you don't think you're having a lot of money every month for retirement already. 🤷‍♂️

"Because I want to leave more for my children."

Leaving More $ For My Children
It's a nice thing to have something to leave behind for your kids.
Not so much if they have to financially support you just so you could leave them something behind when you passed on.

Firstly, the bequest is not guaranteed to have one.
If you draw finished all savings in your CPF, then your children won't have any money to inherit as a bequest.
It's how the plan was designed.

If you have $100,000 in your CPF Retirement Account (RA) at 65, and you picked the Basic Plan, the following happens.

$10,000 is put into the CPF Lifelong Income Fund.
The rest is kept in your RA, and your monthly payout will be paid out from your RA.
So from 65 to 90, you are drawing your monthly payout from your RA.
If you passed on anytime before 90, $100,000 from the Lifelong Income Fund + all $ still in your CPF Accounts, will be given to your dependents as a bequest.
By the time you are 90, your RA would have $0 inside.
From then on, you will draw your monthly payout from the Lifelong Income Fund until you passed on.
If you passed on after 90, what's left of that $100,000 not paid out + all $ still in your CPF Accounts, will be given to your dependents as a bequest.

If you live a long life (95+) and have withdrawn all of the money in your CPF, then your dependents are probably not going to have any bequest.

Recommended Read: What Happens After I Join A CPF LIFE Plan?

Higher Yields from Basic Plan
One common response I get from people who say the Basic Plan is better is because it has higher yields compared to the other 2 CPF LIFE plans.
How?

Let's say you have $100,000 in your RA.

In Standard & Escalating Plan, all $100,000 in your RA is put into the Lifelong Income Fund.
All interest (4%+1%+1%) goes back into the Lifelong Income Fund, not your RA.
The $100,000 in your Lifelong Income Fund will not grow.
And as you draw your monthly payouts, that $100,000 will decrease.
The yield improves as you live longer because you will then be drawing more than you have contributed.

In the Basic Plan, $90,000 stays in your RA while $10,000 goes into the Lifelong Income Fund.
The interest your $90,000 earns goes back into your RA while the interest the $10,000 goes back into the Lifelong Income Fund.
Because the interest goes back into your RA, it makes the yield higher.

But, does the yield matter to you?
Nope, cause you don't get to withdraw any of that yield anyway.
You're still going to get that lower monthly payout even though the yield is higher.
If anything, it's better for your dependents than you.

To Each Their Own
Of course, everyone's circumstances are different.
Maybe Basic Plan is more suitable for them.

Ya, sure, that argument makes sense.
There's no one-size-fits-all policy.

But if you are like a normal person, think about your own retirement, not what you want to leave for your children.

It'll be better if you have more in monthly payments so that your children can save their money for their own retirement instead of giving you money to support you.

Avoid making your children the next sandwich generation.
Your kids are not your retirement plan.

Recommended Read: Answering 2 Common CPF “Complaints”

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Kevin O'Leary: How Much Savings To Have By 33 Years Old

09:36 Personal Finance No comments

Source: Flickr

The famous Shark Tank investor Kevin O'Leary, aka Mr Wonderful, advises on how much people should have saved up by the time they are 33 years old.

"By the time you hit 33 years old, you should have $100,000 saved somewhere."

He said that should be the goal people should aim for and even provided a tip on how to do it.

"You save 20% of your paycheck, and you let the market grow it 5% to 7% a year. You can get to $100,000."

He says if you can't do it at 33, 35 works too - extra 24 months to reach that goal. 😉

The $100,000 is the "milestone" to hit if you want to hit at least $500,000 by the time you are 60 years old.

If you want to hit $500,000 by the time you are 60 years old, it is important to hit that $100,000 milestone when you are 33 years old.

Recommended Read: Save in CPF or Invest in SATS?

Is it possible to reach that goal?

Assuming you start saving from $0 at 23 years old.
We ran the numbers to check how much you need to be earning every month in order to reach that $100,000 goal by 33 years old.

On the bright side, since the milestone it is probably for our retirement, we probably can include our CPF savings as part of the $100,000

We are including only money in our Special Account since most of us probably maxed out our Ordinary Account for housing.

After factoring CPF SA savings into the mix, the percentage we need to save drops by almost half, making it more achievable to achieve that $100,000 goal.

If you could invest 10% to 12% of your after CPF salary every month, combine with your CPF SA savings, you can definitely hit the $100,000 goal. 😉

Recommended Read: Answering 2 Common CPF “Complaints”

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Save in CPF or Invest in SATS?

This is part of our new series where we compare CPF against other financial assets.

Today, we are comparing CPF SA against SATS (S58.SI) because while we were building our SIA comparison, we found SATS to be a much more interesting story than SIA.

Don't worry, we will publish our SIA comparison soon, just as you requested
If there are other assets you would like us to compare against next, let us know in the comments below.

About SATS:
SATS Ltd. was founded in 1972 and is based in Singapore.
The company was formerly known as Singapore Airport Terminal Services Limited.

It is Asia’s leading provider of food solutions and gateway services.
It operates in three segments: Food Solutions, Gateway Services, and Others.

The company serves the airline, hospitality, healthcare, food, and air freight and logistics industries, as well as the government.

Source: Yahoo Finance!

CPF Assumptions:

From Jan 2000 to Dec 2019, $100 is contributed into CPF via the Retirement Sum Top Up Scheme (RSTU).
The money earns 4% p.a. interest and the extra CPF interest is excluded for simplicity sake.
In reality, the CPF returns would be higher than what is calculated due to the extra bonus interest (up to 6% in total).

SATS (S58.SI) Assumptions:

From Jan 2000 to Dec 2019, $100 is contributed into a Regular Shares Savings (RSS) plan every month to buy SATS (S58.SI).
Shares are bought at the end of the month closing price and the plan charges a 0.88% transaction fee (OCBC Blue Chip Investment Plan).
Money uninvested will be refunded back to your bank account.
Results include both dividends reinvested and not reinvested into SATS.

Comparison

Answering 2 Common CPF “Complaints”

09:42 CPF-Related No comments

Some money experts have advised people to save in a bank account that they have no easy access to (i.e. no ATM cards) to reduce the probability of them spending that money.
But often people would come out with “justifications” like “I need a car for work”, “I need to renovate my home”, or the most common one, “I need to fund my child’s education”.

But these are not good reasons for you to dip into your retirement savings!
Yes, including your child’s education!
Your retirement is more important than their education.
On the same note, we may feel restricted by the idea that we cannot touch our retirement (CPF) money, but this is not just a Singapore thing.
Many retirement plans/pensions in other countries, as well as most insurance plans you buy, also do not allow you to withdraw any time you feel like it.
It is called “prudent retirement planning”.
But, like most people, we still question why we need to have such a high amount set aside in our CPF.
So today, we will be addressing the 2 common complaints Singaporeans have when it comes to their CPF.

Complaint 1: Why do I need to set aside a retirement sum?
The retirement sum is set aside so that you have a retirement egg nest to support you during your retirement.
By setting aside a sum of money and using that to subsequently join the CPF LIFE scheme, you ensure yourself of a steady stream of income every month for life.

If you do not have these savings in place, how would you support yourself during your retirement years?
Are you going to rely on your children? In that case, how would your children be able to plan for their retirement?
Having a lifelong income in retirement would reduce your dependence on your children and prevent them from becoming the next sandwich generation.

Can I Not Set Aside a Retirement Sum?
For starters, the retirement sums are reference points for the monthly payouts you can expect to receive from your payout eligibility age (which is currently at age 65).
If you are not able to meet the retirement sum, there is no need to top up with cash.
However, the more you set aside as your retirement sum, the higher your future monthly payouts will be.

If you do not wish to set aside the retirement sum in your Retirement Account, there are ways for you to do so.
As long as you can prove you have a steady stream of income every month for your retirement.
That stream of income can come from private annuity insurance plans or pension plans.
You may be fully or partially exempted, depending on the lifelong monthly payout amount from your private annuity or pension.
But you might want to consider this path carefully.

First of all, CPF pays really attractive interest of up to 6%, risk-free and hassle-free.
Even the base interest of 4% is still significantly higher than what banks offer for deposits.
Furthermore, the Singapore Government guarantees 100% of your CPF money.
In contrast, only $75,000 of your money with the banks are guaranteed by the Singapore Government via SDIC.
Lastly, on average, the interest CPF pays on your money is actually higher than what most private annuity insurance plans offer. CPF only loses to their private counterparts IF the private annuity’s non-guaranteed returns performed well that year.

Conclusion to Complaint 1
Regardless of whether you choose CPF LIFE, an annuity plan, or any other means, you still have to save up for your retirement.
Why not do it with CPF, which has higher interest rates that are much more consistent than the varying rates provided by private annuity insurance plans.

Complaint 2: I contribute so much (20%) of my monthly salary into CPF. Why am I getting only $1,000+ per month when I retire?
This is actually a math problem.

Current Structure:
The current Full Retirement Sum (FRS) is $181,000 for those turning 55 in 2020.
If you live till 85 years old, you will spend 21 years in retirement.
We derived the CPF LIFE Standard Plan monthly payout via the CPF LIFE Estimator for a member who turned 55 in Jul 2020 and has $181,000 in his/her RA.
We compared that against how much the member would get if they do not have CPF LIFE.

	Without CPF Interest^# & calculating payouts for 21 years	With CPF Interest^# & CPF LIFE^## (Standard Plan)
RA balance at age 55	$181,000.00	$181,000.00
RA balance at age 65	$181,000.00	$272,900.00*
Monthly payout till 85	$718.25**	$1,425 - $1,573 (Male) $1,326 - $1,468 (Female)
Monthly payout after 85	$0.00	$1,425 - $1,573 (Male) $1,326 - $1,468 (Female)

^#4% p.a. base interest on RA/SA balance. 1% p.a. extra interest on the first $60,000. Another extra 1% p.a. interest on the first $30,000 for CPF members age 55 and above.
^##All CPF LIFE plans’ payouts may be adjusted to account for long-term changes in interest rates or life expectancy. Such adjustments (if any) are expected to be small and gradual.
*Our own estimated value based on CPF interest rates and reverse engineering our own CPF statements to derive the most likely calculation method.
**$181,000 / (21 x 12) = $718.25

Without CPF interest or CPF LIFE, the $181,000 you have will only provide you with around $718 in monthly payouts for 21 years.
With CPF interest, this $181,000 you set aside will increase significantly to $272,900.

But, with CPF LIFE, males will get an estimated monthly payout of around $1,425-$1,573 for life while females will get a monthly payout of around $1,326-$1,468 for as long as you live!

With CPF LIFE, your monthly payout will never run out.
This is important as we are living longer – in fact, 1 in 2 Singaporeans aged 65 today is expected to live beyond 85 years of age.

Are you now partially convinced that CPF LIFE is a good scheme?
From this illustration, we hope you can also see that your payouts are determined by how much you have set aside as your Retirement Sum.

If You Earned A Median Income Your Whole Life:
Based on MOM’s statistics, the median income of Singapore residents in 2019 was $4,563 (including Employer CPF contribution).
Let’s say you just came out to work, and are getting the median salary, your CPF contribution and allocation would be as follows.

Assuming you started work at age 25 and your salary never increases, you would have contributed $109,278 in your SA by the time you are 55 years old.

For simplicity sake, we will ignore your accumulated OA and MA balances since, like most Singaporeans, you probably max out your OA to fund your home purchase (almost everyone I know maxes out their CPF OA to buy their house - it’s a stupid idea we will touch on in the future), and your MA is for medical purposes only.

Hence let’s assume that you are only going to have your SA to fund your retirement.

We derived the CPF LIFE Standard Plan monthly payout via the CPF LIFE Estimator for members who turned 55 in Jul 2020 and have $109,278 in their RA.

With $109,278 for your retirement, that works out to about $433 a month. [$109,278 / (21 x 12 months)]

But, with CPF LIFE, males will get an estimated monthly payout of around $911-$1,002 while females will get a monthly payout of $849-$936 for life!

	Without CPF Interest^# & calculating payouts for 21 years	With CPF Interest^# & CPF LIFE^## (Standard Plan)
RA balance at age 55	$109,278.00	$109,278.00
RA balance at age 65	$109,278.00	$168,800.00*
Monthly payout till 85	$433.64**	$911 - $1,002 (Male) $849 - $936 (Female)
Monthly payout after 85	$0.00	$911 - $1,002 (Male) $849 - $936 (Female)

^#4% p.a. base interest on RA/SA balance. 1% p.a. extra interest on the first $60,000. Another extra 1% p.a. interest on the first $30,000 for CPF members age 55 and above.
^##All CPF LIFE plans’ payouts may be adjusted to account for long-term changes in interest rates or life expectancy. Such adjustments (if any) are expected to be small and gradual.
*Our own estimated value based on CPF interest rates and reverse engineering our own CPF statements to derive the most likely calculation method.
**$109,278 / (21 x 12) = $433.64

Question: You only contributed a maximum of $448.48 per month into your SA, how do you expect to withdraw more than $1,000 per month during your retirement?
Hint: With CPF LIFE, you almost can!

Conclusion to Complaint 2
Moral of the story: if you want a higher monthly payout, you need to have more in your retirement savings.
One way you can do that is by topping up your CPF account.
Also, the maths has shown that CPF LIFE is an excellent scheme for providing us with a steady stream of monthly income during our retirement years.

Side Note:
I am not sure if you noticed, but after you factor in that CPF interest, the monthly payout that you get when you retire is more than double as compared to without that interest.

Source: CPF

So if you think that 4% p.a. as a base interest is not a lot, you might want to think again. Because a 4% interest compounded over just 10 years, would already have doubled your CPF monthly payouts!

Recommended Read: If You Invested Right After DBS's IPO

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Is CPF A Scam?

09:52 CPF-Related 19 comments

Is CPF a scam?
Yup, Yes, it is!

But it's the people scamming the Government.
Okay, that's an exaggeration.
But hey, now that we have baited you in, keep reading 😉.

1. What Kind of Scam is CPF?

It's a huge financial scam!
The people are "scamming" the Government!
The people are "taking in too much" from the Government in their CPF accounts.

Source: GIPHY

Recommended Read: If You Invested Right After DBS's IPO

2. Public Narrative on CPF

I hear people say that the Singapore Government is using its people's money in CPF to earn big investment returns while paying low interest to its people.

LOW INTEREST? 0.o
Interest ranging from 2.5% to 6% is considered low?

Source: GIPHY

Money in our CPF is kept risk-free and backed by the only few AAA credit rated countries left in the world.
There aren't many countries in the world with that creditworthiness that's paying interest rates of 4%.

3. Our Take

The Singapore Government is actually doing a kind deed by letting Singaporeans have CPF.

Source: i.kym-cdn.com

Before you rage quit and close this article, read on...

The narrative is the Government is locking our money away in CPF, not letting us withdraw it out fully so that they can invest the money and make big returns, all while paying us low interest.

The key thing we will be debunking here is 'paying us low interest'.

We will use the Special, Retirement, and Medisave Account (SRMA) based interest rate of 4% as comparison and reference.

We will compare that against SG Govt 30-Year Bond yields since that is the bond that gives the highest return.

We are not using the 2.5% interest the Ordinary Account (OA) is giving because the OA has a lot more flexibility in how it can be used.
It is structured more like a shorter-term savings plan than a 30-Year kind.

The more appropriate comparison might be the 5-Year or 10-Year bond, which if you look at the chart below, we hope you can tell that the bonds' interest rates are not anywhere close to 2% at all.

Source: World Government Bonds

4. SG Government Bond Yields

This is the SG Govt 30-Year Bond yield for the past 8 years.

It has never passed 4%.

Source: investing.com

So if the Singapore Government ever want to make bigger net investment returns, it can just issue more 30-Year Bonds at lower interest rates, invest it, and make more money.

It can achieve all these without

Paying higher interest to Singaporeans
Listen to Singaporeans complain CPF is bad

Who loses if CPF stops paying high interest to its members?
The CPF members, aka Singaporeans.

Source: GIPHY

If you are thinking, "I don't care about the interest. I want to get the investment returns that GIC is earning using our CPF money!".

May I recommend the article below:

If GIC uses my CPF money to invest and makes 9%, why am I only getting 6%?

5. Conclusion

Singaporeans legit got a good deal in CPF - on the yield side at least.

The yield is good, just that unfortunately you can't withdraw the money any time you want.
But hey, that's the trade-off.

Just think of it as you bought an X-Year AAA-rated high yield bond that pays a compounding 4% interest every year.
And you can only redeem it at maturity - aka when you reach age 65 years old.

6. Side Note

We are not economists or politicians.
But interest rates are now at a record low.
It completely makes sense for our Government to raise long-term funds (30-Year bond) at current interest rates and invest them for the long-term.

Keyword being 'invest' and not 'spend'.
Raise debt to invest in infrastructure or financial assets.
Not raise debt to distribute to citizens (that's how Greece got into trouble).

But, our Finance Minister has already stated that the Govt will not borrow to fund expenditure.
You can see the exchange in the 2 links below.
Concerns raised over fiscal prudence and constraints
Parliament: Being prudent with finances a hallmark of Singapore system, says Heng Swee Keat

If the Government won't, hopefully, Temasek Holdings will? 🙏

Recommended Read: Answering 2 Common CPF “Complaints”

Hey You!

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Investment Stab

Singapore-based financial blog that aims to educate people on personal finance, investments, retirement and their Central Provident Fund (CPF) matters.

Monday, 29 June 2020

7 Advice to Graduates from Apple's SVP of Software Engineering

Sunday, 28 June 2020

The Best CPF LIFE Plan Is...

Thursday, 25 June 2020

You Should Not Choose the CPF LIFE Basic Plan

Monday, 22 June 2020

Kevin O'Leary: How Much Savings To Have By 33 Years Old

Thursday, 18 June 2020

Save in CPF or Invest in SATS?

Monday, 15 June 2020

Answering 2 Common CPF “Complaints”

Saturday, 13 June 2020

Is CPF A Scam?