Singapore-based financial blog that aims to educate people on personal finance, investments, retirement and their Central Provident Fund (CPF) matters.

Thursday, 30 April 2020

Would You Kill For An Insurance Payout?


Would you kill someone close to you just to get their life insurance payout?
Most of us wouldn't.
We could not even imagine how cruel one has to be to murder someone close for money.
But that was exactly what happened in Japan.

The Black Widow
A Japanese woman name Chisako Kakehi, known by the Japanese media as 'Black Widow'.

Nope, Chisako is not a secret agent.
She just dates and marries men who were old, sickly, and rich.
After the men named Chisako as the sole beneficiary of their assets and insurance plan, she would poison these men to death.
She then proceeds to take possession of their wealth, as well as their insurance payouts, making her a multi-millionaire in the process.
In 20 years, she amassed 800 million yen (approximately USD 6.8 million) in inheritance and insurance payout.

Recommended Read: Save in CPF or Invest in SPDR STI ETF?


The Law Catches Up
In 2014, she was arrested and charged for the murder of 3 men and attempted murder of a 4th victim - her new husband.
She was sentenced to death in 2017.
Although she was only convicted of 4 counts of murder and attempted murder, it was suspected that there could be more than 10 men who were killed by her.

Where did her money go to after her death?
Actually, before her death, she already squandered away most of her wealth by investing in high speculative financial products.

Moral of the story:
1. Don't kill for money
2. If you anyhow invest, you will anyhow lose away any fortune you have accumulated.



Hey You!
If you have a story about your or your relative's financial journey that you want to share, let us know in the comments below or email us at investmentstab@gmail.com.


Dear Reader!
As we progress towards the next phase of our journey, we would like to find out what would make you like us even more.
So we hope you could help us fill in a short survey of 8 questions (4 of them are MCQs) so that we can help better tailor our content to you.
Survey

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Tuesday, 28 April 2020

Save in CPF or Invest in SPDR STI ETF?


This is part of our new series where we compare CPF against other financial assets.
Today, we are comparing CPF SA against the SPDR Straits Times Index (STI) ETF (ES3.SI).
If there are other assets you would like us to compare against next, let us know in the comments below.

CPF Assumptions:
  • From Jan 2008 to Dec 2019, $100 is contributed into CPF via the Retirement Sum Top Up Scheme (RSTU).
  • The money earns 4% p.a. interest and the extra CPF interest is excluded for simplicity sake.
    In reality, the CPF returns would be higher than what is calculated due to the extra bonus interest (up to 6% in total).
STI ETF (ES3.SI) Assumptions:
  • From Jan 2008 to Dec 2019, $100 is contributed into a Regular Shares Savings (RSS) plan every month to buy STI ETF (ES3.SI).
  • Shares are bought at the end of the month closing price and the plan charges a 0.88% transaction fee (OCBC Blue Chip Investment Plan).
  • Money uninvested will be refunded back to your bank account.
  • Results include both dividends reinvested and not reinvested into the ETF.

Comparison


Analysis:
From Jan 2008 to Dec 2019, SPDR STI ETF has returned 4.58% p.a. (dividends reinvested) and 4.62% p.a. (dividends not reinvested).
This is higher than the 4% return given by CPF.
Out of 144 months, almost less than 30% of the time did CPF had higher balances than the STI ETF portfolio value.
Over the long-term, it seems that the STI ETF is a better investment than CPF, although it comes with short-term volatility and periods of underperformance.

Conclusion:
The goal of investing is to increase wealth over the long-term.
The SPDR STI ETF is able to grow at rates above the 4% p.a. given by CPF.
However, CPF pays up to 5% p.a. interest on the first $40,000 CPF SMRA balance.
In that case, it might be better for you to top up money to your CPF account until your SMRA balance reaches $40,000.
Then after that invest your money in STI ETF.
That should maximise your long-term returns.
Of course, past performance is no indication of future results.
The SPDR STI ETF may in the next 10 years underperform the fixed returns given by CPF SA.
Also, if you have no stomach for volatility, and is risk-averse, then maybe CPF SA might be a better retirement plan for you than the SPDR STI ETF.

Recommended Read: The 4% Shortfall In Your CPF Retirement Fund

Side Note:
Did not compare rolling 5-year periods
There are a total of 85 rolling 5-year rolling periods from Jan 2008 to Dec 2019.
Because of my laziness to compute the rate of return 85 times, it is not shown.
However, if you have a way to use Excel to calculate the rolling rate of return via XIRR, please let us know.
We will work on the calculations and publish it for you.

Did not compare rolling 10-year periods
There are a total of 25 rolling 10-year rolling periods from Jan 2008 to Dec 2019.
Because of my laziness to compute the rate of return 25 times, it is not shown.
However, if you have a way to use Excel to calculate the rolling rate of return via XIRR, please let us know.
We will work on the calculations and publish it for you.

Tax benefits with topping up to CPF SA via RSTU
Every dollar you contribute into your CPF via the RSTU is eligible for a tax deduction - if you haven't maxed out your tax deductions.
So you'll get tax deductibles of $1,200 per year based on the above scenario.
However, if you need money, you can't withdraw it from CPF.

For investing in STI ETF, there is no tax benefit associated unless you contribute that $100 into your Supplementary Retirement Account (SRS), and then build your RSS with the money that's in your SRS.
However, if you need money, you can sell the STI ETFs and get back cash.
However, if you withdraw before your retirement age, 100% of the amount withdrawn will be subjected to tax.

Different performance result from the ones shown by SPDR STI ETF  
The difference stems from the investment period and method.
In our case, we use Dollar-Cost Average (DCA), buying $100 of the ETF every month.
SPDR case, it is calculated from an investment at the beginning (Jan 2008) of the fund (lump sum investing).

SPDR STI ETF started in April 2002.
However, we were only able to get price data from Jan 2009 to Dec 2019.
We were unable to find price data from April 2002 to Dec 2008.
If you have the data for the missing period, do send it to us.
We will be able to build a more complete analysis of SPDR STI ETF and share it back with you.

Uninvested money returned to your bank account
If the ETF was trading at $3.10, only 31 unit of ETF would be bought, which translate to a cost of $96.95 ($3.10 x 31 units + 0.88% commission).
That results in $3.05 going back into your pocket.

OCBC Blue Chip Investment Plan Fees
OCBC Blue Chip Investment Plan does not include SPDR STI ETF (ES3.SI) as one of the counters available for investment.
However, for consistency with our other comparisons, we decided to stick to the 0.88% in fees charged by OCBC.
In reality, the transaction fee charged by other brokerage firms to invest in SPDR STI ETF via a Regular Shares Savings plan might be higher than the 0.88%.


Disclaimer:
Do not make any investment decisions based upon materials found on this website.
Investment Stab is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and am not qualified to give financial advice.
Investors are reminded to do their own due diligence and invest according to their risk appetite.

Dear Reader!
As we progress towards the next phase of our journey, we would like to find out what would make you like us even more.
So we hope you could help us fill in a short survey of 8 questions (4 of them are MCQs) so that we can help better tailor our content to you.
Survey


WSG can provide you with a career coach that can help you with that. 
And if you are looking for a free career coach, visit Workforce Singapore via the link below.
They can link you up with the career coach and you 
might be able to find new opportunities on their jobs portal.


Remember to offer your opinions. If you don't put your two cents in, how can you expect to get change?

Have feedback? Tell us now!

Follow us on Facebook and Instagram for more timely updates about finance-related articles and memes! 😁
Subscribe to our newsletter too in case social media platforms decide to stop showing you our content.

Thursday, 23 April 2020

Investing in ETFs with my CPF Money



Today's post will be on: how much can I invest in ETFs using CPF monies.
This question was submitted by one of our readers.
We would like to thank all our readers who post questions or tips to us.
We would love to see more of that coming in, so do feel free to keep sending us these messages!
You can contact us via email (investmentstab@gmail.com), comment on our blog, or drop us a message via Facebook or Instagram.

1) What is an ETF?
An ETF is an Exchange Traded Fund, a fund traded on financial markets (SGX, NYSE etc) like a stock.
For more information on what ETF is, you can find out more HERE

2) Am I Eligible to CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS)
All CPF members are eligible if you
  1. are at least 18 years old
  2. are not an undischarged bankrupt
  3. take the SAQ (Self-Awareness Questionaire)*
  4. have more than $20,000 in your Ordinary Account or more than $40,000 in your Special Account**
*You can start on the SAQ online via the link HERE.

**Your first $60,000 in your combined CPF account earns an extra 1%, which is why the CPF recommend you to invest the only amount in excess of that $60,000.

Recommended Read: The 4% Shortfall In Your CPF Retirement Fund

3) What can I invest in?
What you can invest in shown in the table below:
Source: CPF

4) How much can I invest in ETFs using my CPF monies?
Yes, you may invest your CPF money in Singapore listed ETFs approved by CPF.
However, there are some rules & regulations regarding this.
You may only
    a) use your CPF OA for investing in ETFs
    b) use funds in excess of $20,000 in your OA
    c) list of available ETFs can be found HERE.

5) What is the cost associated with using my CPF for investments in ETFs?
There are 2 costs associated with investing in ETFs with your CPF.

  1. Your brokerage fees
    Your account will have to be opened with 1 of the 3 banks in Singapore (DBS, OCBC, UOB). Brokerage fees depends on the broker and the amount invested.
  2. Your ETF fund fees
    This depends on which ETF you are buying. Most ETFs charge a low fee.
    The fees are used to pay the fund management team for providing the product.

Recommended Read: Save in CPF or Invest in Nikko AM STI ETF?

Dear Reader!
As we progress towards the next phase of our journey, we would like to find out what would make you like us even more.
So we hope you could help us fill in a short survey of 8 questions (4 of them are MCQs) so that we can help better tailor our content to you.
Survey


WSG can provide you with a career coach that can help you with that. 
And if you are looking for a free career coach, visit Workforce Singapore via the link below.
They can link you up with the career coach and you 
might be able to find new opportunities on their jobs portal.

Remember to offer your opinions. If you don't put your two cents in, how can you expect to get change?

Have feedback? Tell us now!

Follow us on Facebook and Instagram for more timely updates about finance-related articles and memes! 😁
Subscribe to our newsletter too in case social media platforms decide to stop showing you our content.

Tuesday, 21 April 2020

If GIC uses my CPF money to invest and makes 9%, why am I only getting 6%?


If GIC uses my CPF money to invest and makes 9% a year, why am I only paid a maximum of 6% a year?

First off, let's start with how our CPF monies flow to GIC.
  1. We work and contribute a portion of our salary to our CPF accounts.
  2. The money in our CPF accounts is invested in the Special Singapore Government Securities (SSGS). 
  3. The funds in SSGS are pooled together with other SG Govt securities, proceeds from land sales, and budget surplus, all deposited with the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).
  4. MAS then invests the bulk of this money into GIC.
Icon made by Freepik and Nikita Golubev from www.flaticon.com

SSGS is the securities that your CPF account are invested in and pays you that fixed CPF interest.
They are guaranteed by the Singapore Government.
So your CPF interest is actually paid to you by the Singapore Government.
So your CPF monies are not affected by GIC's investment performance (aka volatility).

Because of the unique structure of layering MAS (aka SG Government) between GIC and SSGS, it removes volatility.
Think of it this way; banks take your deposits and lend out to borrowers (people and corporates).
Regardless of whether the borrowers repay or don't repay their loans to the bank, the bank will still pay you the interest on your deposits.
The value of your deposits with the bank will not drop in value.

In this sense, CPF works almost the same way as a bank.
Except banks play the role of CPF, MAS, and GIC, all in one.
Icon made by Freepik and Surang from www.flaticon.com

Scenario A: GIC Returns > CPF Interest
Initially, you had $200,000 retirement savings in CPF.
In 2020, GIC funds performed well; hence your retirement savings got a boost to $240,000 (+20%).
On 1st Jan 2021, you reached your CPF payout age, and the sum was transferred to CPF LIFE to provide you with a monthly payout for the rest of your life.
With $240,000, the monthly CPF LIFE payout you will be getting is as per below.

Compared this to the current fixed interest rate of up to 6% p.a., your 2021 Retirement Sum will be $208,900, and the payout will be as per below.

Comparing the 2 results, you can tell that there is almost a $150 difference in the monthly payout. Suddenly the fixed interest rate provided by CPF does not seem very attractive, and we should all be demanding for the full returns from GIC, correct?

But what if the situation below occurs?

Scenario B: Sovereign Fund Returns < CPF Interest
Initially, you had $200,000 retirement savings in CPF.
In 2020, GIC funds performed badly due to COVID 19.
Hence your retirement savings lost 25% of its value, and you ended up with $150,000 in your CPF by the end of 2020.
Yes, stock markets do drop that much, just look at the chart below that shows the S&P 500 over the past 40 years.
It fell severely in the 2008 Financial Crisis, as well as during other periods of crises.
Source: Yahoo Finance

On 1st Jan 2021, you reached your CPF payout age, and $150,000 was transferred to CPF LIFE to provide you with a monthly payout for the rest of your life.
With $150,000, the monthly CPF LIFE payout you will be getting is as per below.

Compared this to the current fixed interest rate of up to 6%, your 2009 Retirement Sum will be $208,900, and the payout will be as per below.

Suddenly, because of volatility in the asset markets, the monthly payout you would receive from your CPF LIFE drops by almost $250 per month.

Conclusion
As the saying goes, "higher returns = higher risks".
If you want the higher returns, you have to be able to withstand the higher risk; aka higher volatility.

But I doubt anyone would want to risk losing a huge portion of their retirement savings when they are close to retirement.
This was what happened to America during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Many people who were near their retirement age were suddenly unable to retire as their retirement savings dropped by half or more because of the stock market crash.

Imagine you are 64 years old, and suddenly you have to start finding jobs in an economy that is in ruin because half your retirement egg nest was gone.
That is extremely scary.

So the current CPF interest framework is still an ideal one for preparing us for our retirement, ensuring that our savings would go only one direction: UP

Dear Reader!
As we progress towards the next phase of our journey, we would like to find out what would make you like us even more.
So we hope you could help us fill in a short survey of 8 questions (4 of them are MCQs) so that we can help better tailor our content to you.
Survey

WSG can provide you with a career coach that can help you with that. 
And if you are looking for a free career coach, visit Workforce Singapore via the link below.
They can link you up with the career coach and you 
might be able to find new opportunities on their jobs portal.


Remember to offer your opinions. If you don't put your two cents in, how can you expect to get change?

Have feedback? Tell us now!

Follow us on Facebook and Instagram for more timely updates about finance-related articles and memes! 😁
Subscribe to our newsletter too in case social media platforms decide to stop showing you our content.

Monday, 13 April 2020

A Story Of When Saving Money Doesn't Work


From young, we are taught the importance of saving money for an emergency or to be able to purchase something, like an expensive toy.
After we grow up, we are taught that financial prudence means saving first before spending.
Now, that is great advise - at least that's what I thought - until recently.

The following is a true story.
It is the story about how a relative handles his money.
Let's call this relative Joe.

Chapter 1: Debt Discovery & Bailouts
Joe is the kind of guy who spends first and saves what is left.
That would be fine except he overspends on random things without keeping track of what he has bought, like a big Toyogo box to put the small ones he previously bought, or good luck crystals, or 4D and Toto.
Without a doubt, after several years of living like that, he maxed out several of his credit cards and accumulated a sizable amount of credit card debt.

Long story short, Joe was no longer able to keep up with his credit cards' minimum payments and reached out to his family for help.
His family came together and bailed him out.
But just like when the European Central Bank (ECB) bailed out the bankrupted European Union (EU) countries, the family too set restrictions, created debt repayment arrangements and cancelled all of his credit cards.
Of course, the family also emphasised the importance of having savings.

Lesson 1: As Warren Buffett said, "If you buy things you don't need, you will soon sell things you need."
So keep track of where you are spending your money.

Chapter 2: Turning For The Better
After the whole debt saga and education on the importance of savings, Joe seems to have changed.
He started accumulating savings, not buy things recklessly, and quit gambling.
He was repaying his debts to the family, and for a brief period, he seemed to have learned his lesson and was financially stable.
Or so it seems.
A couple of years later, Joe went to the family for help again.
He had gotten himself into the same mess he was in previously - he had maxed out his cards and once again accumulated a sizable amount of debt.
This time, it is for the same reasons and more.

Chapter 3: Easy Credit Card Access
Joe's family may have cancelled all his cards, but they forgot that it is not hard to re-apply for new credit cards.
That was what Joe did.
A period after the first debt saga ended, when Joe was no longer under tight supervision, he applied for several new credit cards again.
Needless to say, the cards were soon approved, and he started his spending spree again.
This was all done without the knowledge of the family.

Lesson 2: Just because you are eligible for a credit card or a loan, doesn't mean you must get it.
You can just say 'NO'!

Chapter 4: Hiding The New Toys
The family thought Joe had learnt his lesson and no longer bought random stuff.
The family got this conclusion from visiting Joe's house - they no longer saw random new things lying around the house.
Besides, everyone in the family thought Joe didn't have a credit card, and hence thought he would not be able to overspend his means even if he wanted to.
Little did they know, the random stuff still exists in his home.
Things like good luck crystals, Toyogo boxes, and new furniture (bed frame, mattress, etc.) although the old ones were still in good condition.
It wasn't because he no longer buys them, but because he hid them well and out of sight when the family visited him.

Lesson 3: If someone wants to hide something from you, they will do everything they can to hide it from you.



Chapter 5: The 'Best Parent' Award
Joe is a divorce with full custody of his 2 children.
They are still in contact with the children's mother.
Although both parents are friendly to each other on the surface, beneath it, both parties are battling it all out to be the best parent in their children's eye: bi-weekly restaurant dinner, monthly family day, or giving in to their children's wishes.
This is like democracy at its worse.
They are behaving like the Greek politicians who gave promises of big pension or welfare to their voters in exchange for their votes.
Joe and his ex-wife are the Greek politicians, and their 2 children are the voters.
The Greek politicians ended up bankrupting Greece while Joe and his ex-wife ended up emptying their savings or getting into debts.
And that is one of the new reason Joe got into trouble with debts again.

Lesson 4: Do things within your means. If you can't afford it, don't spend on it.
If your kids like you solely because you showered them with luxury items, then maybe you hadn't taught them the right values.

Recommended Read: Save in CPF or Invest in Nikko AM STI ETF?

Chapter 6: Save First, Spend What's Left
After the debt saga, Joe started saving up money to build his emergency fund.
He set aside money to save first, then spend what is left.
Which is all fine except this was carried out to an extreme.
Because Joe saves before spending, he runs out of money to pay for living expenses.
Because "savings should not be touched", Joe withdrew money from his credit card to pay his bills.
Let's say he earned $1,100, saved $100, and has a monthly expenditure of about $1,300.
Instead of cutting spending (which didn't happen even though he claimed he tried) or using that $100 savings to reduce the deficit, he proceeded to withdraw $300 cash from his credit card to finance his expenses.

Side Track:
Withdrawing cash from your credit card is one of the dumbest things you can do to get yourself financially ruin.
  1. There's a 6% admin fee for withdrawing the amount. AKA if you withdraw $1,000 from your credit card, the bank will charge you $1,060 for it. When you pay with your credit card, the bank charges a transaction fee on the merchant. When you withdraw cash, the bank charges YOU that transaction fee.
  2. Cash withdrawal interest rate is (3%) higher than the credit card's interest rate, even though they are both from the same card. 
Back to the story:
In short, Joe was basically borrowing from the bank at 24% interest so that he can have emergency savings stashed away earning 0.1% interest.
Based on the figures that we used in Joe's example, assuming he withdraws $300 every money to cover his expenses + the 6% cash withdrawal fee.
In the 1st month, Joe withdraw $300 and incurred $18 in withdrawal fee,
In the 2nd month, Joe would withdraw another $300, incurred another $18 in withdrawal fee, on top of the previous month's $318 that he has no money to pay.
Accumulated over 4 months, he would end up owing $1,272 in credit card bill, and that excludes late fees and interest charges.


Needless to say, by the time the family found out the second mountain of debt, it was all too late.
The family got Joe to empty his emergency savings to pay down his debt.
But by then, the debt has escalated to a mid-5-digit sum again, and that emergency savings could not even help much in reducing the debt load.

Lesson 5: Don't withdraw cash from your credit card. Pay your credit card bills on time and in full!

Lesson 6: Your credit card debt is an emergency. Use your emergency fund to pay it in full! 
What else are you keeping your emergency funds for?




Chapter 7: Habits Are Hard To Change
You may be wondering. "maybe Joe is not earning enough, or has a lot of expenses".
Joe bought a new table because the previous table he had was too big for his house.
Joe recently wanted to upgrade his mobile phone to S20 (he is using S10 he got last year) although he only uses it for YouTube, WhatsApp, and Facebook.
And all these happened while he was still overspending every month and had accumulated a sizable credit card debt.
Joe earns a middle-income wage, the median salary in Singapore to be exact.
Hence this is not a "low-income" situation, but a spending habit problem.

Joe's habit: I'll find the money to pay it when the bill comes.
When the children's education bill comes, Joe will start searching for money.
If he can't find or earn it (which is usually the case), he'll use his credit card.
When Joe's unable to pay for the mortgage using his CPF (insufficient funds), he turns to his credit cards.

Lesson 7: As Warren Buffett said, "the chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken".
Habits once formed are hard to break or change.
Paying using credit cards for anything and everything is a habit.
It is an okay habit to have until another one comes along: not paying the credit card bills in full.
That's when the troubles come.

Chapter 8: European Union To The Rescue
Well, not the actual EU, but close enough.
Remember in Chapter 5, where we said Joe was acting like Greek politicians?
EU bailed out Greece when they got into a financial crisis.
EU lent money to Greece several times over the decade from 2008 to 2018.
Similarly, the family lent money to Joe to bail him out of the new debts he had created.

FYI: the 2nd debt saga is a story from a couple of years back.
This year (2020), Joe had recently approached his family again to ask for another round of mid-five-figure bailout funds.
The reason is the same as before: credit card debts incurred from overspending.

When the family condones such acts, it is sending a message to Joe that it is okay to overspend and ask for another round of bailouts continuously.
Just like how the EU would not want Greece to fail because it would look bad on the whole Eurozone and create a ripple effect in the European economy, hanging Joe out to dry would probably not make subsequent CNY reunion a pleasant gathering.
However, unlimited financial aid by the family is not the appropriate solution to Joe's problem.
Instead, it would only increase the burden on the family's overall finances.

Chapter 9: Conclusion
Don't be confused.
Joe's an exception, not the norm.
Most people I know spend first and save what's left, and that's fine because at least they are not going into deficit or debt.
But if you know a Joe in your life, share with them this article.
Let them know that they need help - not the bailout kind of help.
They need to seek professional help, maybe a psychiatrist.
A financial advisor might give them the instructions on how to get their financial life in order, but if they don't follow it, nothing is going to improve.

If you have trouble kicking the gambling habit, we don't call it a financial problem or get a financial advisor to come in and help you.
Similarly, if your spending problem persists despite already gone through financial education, then what you need is not financial aid or financial advisor.
What you need is to visit a doctor, a psychiatrist.

And this is a story of how saving money doesn't work.



Hey You!
If you have a story about your or your relative's financial journey that you want to share, let us know in the comments below or email us at investmentstab@gmail.com.


Dear Reader!
As we progress towards the next phase of our journey, we would like to find out what would make you like us even more.
So we hope you could help us fill in a short survey of 8 questions (4 of them are MCQs) so that we can help better tailor our content to you.
Survey

Remember to offer your opinions. If you don't put your two cents in, how can you expect to get change?

Have feedback? Tell us now!

Follow us on Facebook and Instagram for more timely updates about finance-related articles and memes! 😁
Subscribe to our newsletter too in case social media platforms decide to stop showing you our content.

Friday, 10 April 2020

Save in CPF or Invest in Nikko AM STI ETF?


This is our new series where we compare CPF against other financial assets.
Today, we are comparing CPF SA against the Nikko AM Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) ETF (G3B.SI).
If there are other assets you would like us to compare against next, let us know in the comments below.

CPF Assumptions:
  • From Feb 2009 to Dec 2019 $100 is contributed into CPF via the Retirement Sum Top Up Scheme (RSTU).
  • The money earns 4% p.a. interest and the extra CPF interest is excluded for simplicity sake. In reality, the CPF returns would be higher than what is calculated due to the extra bonus interest (up to 6% in total).
STI ETF (G3B.SI) Assumptions:
  • From Feb 2009 to Dec 2019, $100 is contributed into a Regular Shares Savings (RSS) plan every month to buy STI ETF (G3B.SI).
  • Shares are bought at the end of the month closing price and the plan charges a 0.88% transaction fee (OCBC Blue Chip Investment Plan).
  • Money uninvested will be refunded back to your bank account.
  • Results include both dividends reinvested and not reinvested into the ETF.
Comparison:


Analysis:
Since the creation of the Nikko AM STI ETF on February 2009 to 31 December 2019,  it has returned 4.20% p.a. (dividends reinvested) and 4.27% p.a. (dividends not reinvested).
This is higher than the 4% return given by CPF.
Out of 131 months, less than 30% of the time did CPF had higher balances than the STI ETF portfolio value.
Over the long-term, it seems that the STI ETF is a better investment than CPF, although it comes with short-term volatility and periods of underperformance.

Conclusion:
The goal of investing is to increase wealth over the long-term.
The Nikko AM STI ETF is able to grow at rates above the 4% p.a. given by CPF.
However, CPF pays up to 5% p.a. interest on the first $40,000 CPF SMRA balance.
In that case, it might be better for you to top up money to your CPF account until your SMRA balance reaches $40,000.
Then after that invest your money in STI ETF.
That should maximise your long-term returns.

Recommended Read: 8 Years of Investing: How a Hedge Fund Manager Wannabe Became Just Another Singaporean

Side Note:
Did not compare rolling 5-year periods
There are a total of 72 rolling 5-year rolling periods from Feb 2009 to Dec 2019.
Because of my laziness to compute the rate of return 72 times, it is not shown.
However, if you have a way to use Excel to calculate the rolling rate of return via XIRR, please let us know.
We will work on the calculations and publish it for you.

Did not compare rolling 10-year periods
We ignored the 10-year rolling results because the life of the Nikko AM STI ETF is not significantly long enough to make any 10-year rolling results meaningful.
From Feb 2009 to Dec 2019, there are 12 rolling 10-year periods, and they all fall in the year 2019.

Tax benefits with topping up to CPF SA via RSTU
Every dollar you contribute into your CPF via the RSTU is eligible for a tax deduction - if you haven't maxed out your tax deductions.
So you'll get tax deductibles of $1,200 per year based on the above scenario.
However, if you need money, you can't withdraw it from CPF.

For investing in STI ETF, there is no tax benefit associated unless you contribute that $100 into your Supplementary Retirement Account (SRS), and then build your RSS with the money that's in your SRS.
However, if you need money, you can sell the STI ETFs and get back cash.
However, if you withdraw before your retirement age, 100% of the amount withdrawn will be subjected to tax.

Different performance result from the ones shown by Nikko AM  
The difference stems from the investment period.
In our case, we use Dollar-Cost Average (DCA), buying the ETF every month.
Nikko AM case, it is calculated from an investment at the beginning of the fund (lump sum investing).

Uninvested money returned to your bank account
If the ETF was trading at $3.10, only 31 unit of ETF would be bought, which translate to a cost of $96.95 ($3.10 x 31 units + 0.88% commission).
That results in $3.05 going back into your pocket.

STI ETF (G3B.SI) performance without fees
When fees are excluded (though not realistic), the performance of STI ETF increased by about 0.2%, to 4.38% p.a. (dividends reinvested) and 4.44% p.a. (dividends not reinvested).

Disclaimer:
Do not make any investment decisions based upon materials found on this website.
Investment Stab is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and am not qualified to give financial advice.
Investors are reminded to do their own due diligence and invest according to their risk appetite.

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Thursday, 2 April 2020

The 4% Shortfall In Your CPF Retirement Fund


Are we really not contributing enough to our CPF?
Let's find out!
What is the recommended percentage of salary should one contribute to their retirement fund?

10% to 15%
This is the traditional wisdom towards how much of your monthly salary to contribute to your retirement egg nest.
If you are like most Singaporeans, your retirement egg nest is probably purely just the money you contributed into your CPF.
Like most Singaporeans, you probably use your whole Ordinary Account (OA) to fund your home purchase, and your MediSave Account (MA) can only be used for medical purposes.
As such, you probably are going to have only your Special Account (SA) to fund your retirement.
Hence your SA equals your retirement egg nest.

CPF Allocation Rates
Allocation Rates from 1 Jan 2016
Source: CPF

If we look at the CPF allocation rates above, we can see that for most of our working years, less than 10% of our monthly salary is contributed to our SA.
For those 35 years old and below, only 6% of our monthly salary is contributed to our SA.
Long story short, this means that we are basically underfunding our retirement egg nest during the early parts of our career; or almost every part of our working lives.

What Can I Do To Make Up The Shortfall?
There are 2 options:
  1. Transfer your OA balance to your SA such that the SA's allocation becomes 10% of your salary.
  2. Do a top-up to your CPF SA via the Retirement Sum Top Up Scheme (RSTU) such that the SA's allocation becomes 10% of your pay.
Benefits of Option 1: Transfer OA to SA
  1. No need to top up cash into SA.
  2. Earns a higher interest. OA earns up to 3.5%, but SA earns up to 6%.
Drawbacks of option 1: Transfer OA to SA
  1. Less OA to pay for home purchase, education, or other purposes allowed in CPF OA.
  2. But you shouldn't spend too much of your money in your home anyway.
    It’s a stupid idea we will touch on in the future.
Benefits of Option 2: Top-up to SA via RSTU
  1. The top-up amount is tax-deductible.
  2. Earns a higher interest of up to 6%.
    Whatever savings account you put your money in is not going to earn more than the SA's base interest of 4%.
Drawbacks of Option 2: Top-up to SA via RSTU
  1. Cash top-up = less cash on hand.

Conclusion
Does it really matter if I save at least 10% of my monthly salary in my CPF SA?
It depends on how much you need and want to spend when you retire.

Male
Default SA
Allocation Rates
10% SA
Allocation Rate
CPF SA Balance @ 65YO $123,318.00 $191,880.00

Female
Default SA
Allocation Rates
10% SA
Allocation Rate
CPF SA Balance @ 65YO $123,318.00 $191,880.00

The above calculation is done based on the following assumptions:
  • DOB: 31 March 1955
  • Earns 2019 medium salary of $4,563 (including Employer CPF contribution) from age 25 to 65, with no pay increment over the 40 years.
  • Ignores SA interest calculation to reduce complications (aka there's 0% on SA balance).
By saving a couple more percentage of your pay every month in your SA, the end result is you end up with 55.6% more in retirement savings.
That difference would also translate to a higher CPF LIFE monthly payout.

We used the CPF LIFE Calculator to calculate how much the CPF LIFE monthly payout one would receive if he retires today, based on the respective SA balances.
The '10% allocation' would receive almost 50% more in monthly payouts than the 'default allocation'.

Male
Default SA
Allocation Rates
10% SA
Allocation Rate
CPF SA Balance @ 65YO$123,318.00$191,880.00
CPF LIFE Payout @ 65YO
(Standard Plan)
$708 - $746$1,061 - $1,120

Female
Default SA
Allocation Rates
10% SA
Allocation Rate
CPF SA Balance @ 65YO $123,318.00 $191,880.00
CPF LIFE Payout @ 65YO
(Standard Plan)
$659 - $696 $986 - $1,044

So if you want to receive higher CPF LIFE monthly payouts, work to contribute/allocate 10% of your salary into your CPF SA.

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As we progress towards the next phase of our journey, we would like to find out what would make you like us even more.
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And if you are looking for a free career coach, visit Workforce Singapore via the link below.
They can link you up with the career coach and you 
might be able to find new opportunities on their jobs portal.


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