Singapore-based financial blog that aims to educate people on personal finance, investments, retirement and their Central Provident Fund (CPF) matters.

Tuesday, 13 June 2017

What you are missing out that the institutional investors are doing

19:37 No comments

As retail investors, we often perceive ourselves or by others as inferior investors that are incapable of obtaining superior returns as compared to institutional investors. This is partly due to the pre-conception that institutional investors are more sophisticated and knowledgeable where they can utilise complicated strategies with confusing instruments. However, with more and more articles that emphasized the ineffectiveness of active institutional funds and how passive funds are outperforming active funds, you may be swayed towards believing that active funds are lacking.

So how do we, retail investors who want to take on a more active investment approach, do to outperform the market benchmarks? 

Given their long establishment and experiences, active institutional funds do have established processes and frameworks that retail investors can exploit to improve their chances. 

1. Efficient employment of capital

Institutional investors often have large amount of capital. To maximise returns, it is also prudent to manage and ensure that a comfortable level of capital is employed for the purpose of earning returns. Evaluation of options to determine returns so as to effectively utilise capital is also important. Depending on choice of asset classes, level of capital usage also varies. From personal experience, in trading forex, 60-70% of capital should be employed consistently to ensure efficient use of capital to generate returns. Comparing to other asset classes like equities, this may be low but given the high leverage nature and buffer for margin calls, this would be sufficient. 

Just based on simple logic, by having most of your capital consistently employed and utilised to earn returns ensures a higher chance of out-performance.

2. Recording your investment thesis and reviewing when necessary

Institutional investors often record their investment thesis when they invest. This is important for the management and continuity of the investment strategy where new employees can easily understand and takeover an existing portfolio based on various reasons for investment. Another important step is to review the investment only if there are material changes in the investment scenario or market. Unlike retail investors, they are less likely to be impacted by daily price movements, which are erratic and random. This could be also possible due to the bureaucracy layered in an organization where it takes slightly longer than individuals to evaluate and make decisions. This is then one advantage of retail investors where we are more nimble and sensitive to capture investment opportunities. This means that we are able to get in at favourable prices. The tough part is, hence, to differentiate from the noises of the market (daily price fluctuations) and sticking to your investment plan.

From personal experience, all these noises are often the ones that distract me from the ultimate underlying price that I have for a specific investment. The market will often try hard to force you to move your positions and fake you out before moving exactly in the way you predicted. Thus, it is important to be able to differentiate what change is material enough for a change in investment stance.

3. Having co-investment officer
We could see that there are multiple successful funds that have 2 leaders to dictate investment strategies. Examples are PIMCO, KKR. Contrasting this to traditional leadership models where one individual will make the overall decision for direction. From personal experience, by having another investor that understands the overall investing strategy, it helps to keep one another in check for emotions such as greed and fear, as well as to promote accountability in managing other's funds, there are more detailed thought process in both investors before committing to a decision. Discussions are also conducted to discuss future strategies and evaluate investment options. 
Beside these techniques, what are the other ways you try to increase your investment returns? Share it here!


Friday, 9 June 2017

If Li Ka Shing was 20+ years old now, he would....


There was an article in the past that went viral.
It talked about the advice given to young people by Hong Kong's richest man - Li Ka Shing.
In the article, he talked about splitting our pay into 5 parts, each for a different purpose

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30% - Living Expenses, paying for food etc
20% - Socialising, paying off phone bill + creating connections
15% - Learning, buying of books or signing up for courses/training
10% - Travelling, going overseas once a year to broaden your horizon
25% - Invest, SAVE to INVEST or start a Small Business

He used a guy earning RMB 2,000 (roughly SGD $400) as an example of how to split the money.
His example is for people living in Hong Kong or in China.
In my perspective, there are some parts I think we can change to suit it to Singapore's context.

The allocation below is for a Singaporean whose take home pay is $1,500 after CPF deduction.
Some adjustments were made to the allocation and I do not recommend following strictly to the guideline because every individual is different and every month is different.
If you spend more on 1 month, make sure to balance it back the other month.
I think a little flexibility in the allocation is okay, but not too big a difference, less than 5% movement range for each category.
But do try and keep the last part (INVEST) intact or increase if possible, because that is for the future, YOUR FUTURE!

55% ($825) - Living Expenses, paying for food, transport etc (a)
10% ($150) - Socializing, paying off phone bill + creating connections (b)
10% ($150) - Learning, buying of books or signing for courses/training (c)
10% ($150) - Travelling, go overseas once a year to broaden your horizon (d)
15% ($225) - Invest, SAVE to Invest or start a Small Business (e)

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a) The unfortunate part of not earning much is that a huge portion of our pay goes into necessities, rendering us with minimal for other things.
Items like groceries, utilities, meals etc often take up a huge portion of our pay.
Find ways to cut cost and keep them within the 55% budget!
DO NOT OVERSPEND!

b) Li Ka Shing advises us to treat 2 people who are able to help us in our career to a meal each month. Allocating about 3% of your pay to treat each person sounds reasonable. And hopefully, if your phone bill is not too expensive, it would probably be less than 5% of your pay

c) Singapore's National Library has got a good variety of books, thus there is not really a need to buy books. Save that money for other use, go to the library to borrow more books to read and learn.
There are also currently a lot of e-courses online that are free, some even available via YouTube. Do make use of these sites to learn and save on the learning expenses.
Of course, if a certification is required, then go for the paying courses that provide certificates.
The government is also providing a $500 subsidies for qualifying courses, make good use of it!
Money saved here should go to the 'Invest & Save' portion

d) Depending on your income, travelling every year might not be possible, unless it's to neighbouring countries. Either it is travelling every 2 years OR you could roll over your money to the Invest or Learning portion.

e) Read up on basic investments, long-term investments. Read up on our post on investment under our 'Investment' tabs to learn more!

Remember to offer your opinions. If you don't put your two cents in, how can you expect to get change?

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Wednesday, 7 June 2017

Singapore embraces Gender Diversity, but her Home Companies seems not...

How many female directors are there in Singapore's top 10 public companies?
While the number of female directors around the world is increasing, is the number of female board of directors in Singapore increasing?

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As we embrace gender diversity, should we start pushing for more female directors on our public companies' boards?
Especially when 3/10 of the companies have 0 female directors on their board.

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Remember to offer your opinions. If you don't put your two cents in, how can you expect to get change?

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Sunday, 14 May 2017

Yes, CPF takes 20% of your Monthly Salary, BUT....

A lot of people have the misconception that the Central Provident Fund (CPF) takes away 20% of your salary every month.
While that is true, there is more to that than just what it seems like.
There are a few things you should know about this 20% "pay cut".

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1) The amount that you give actually decreases as you age
At the start, your contribution rate is 20% of your monthly salary
As you grow older, the percentage of your salary CPF takes decreases.
Source: CPF Board

2) There is a cap to your salary contribution!
Yes, there is a limit to how much you can INVOLUNTARILY contribute to your CPF.
Currently, the limit is set at $6,000.
If you earn $6,000 or less, your contribution rate is 20%. Meaning you only contribute $1,200 to your CPF.
However, if you earn more than $6,000, you are only required to contribute base on $6,000.
If you earn $10,000, you still only need to contribute $1,200 into your CPF. There is no need to contribute 20% of your extra $4,000 salary into your CPF (although you could if you want to).

3) Your Employer also contribute to your CPF
Your employer contributes 17% of your salary into your CPF.
This means you are actually getting an extra 17% of your salary - but it goes into your CPF.
This 17% is also cap at a monthly salary of $6,000, similar to your own contribution
If you earn $6,000, your employer contributes an extra $1,020 into your CPF (17% x $6,000)
If you earn $10,000, your employer also still contributes an extra $1,020 into your CPF.

4) If your salary is below $750, your CPF Contribution is Different from others
If your monthly salary is below $750, your CPF contribution percentage is different from the normal CPF contribution rates
Source: CPF Board

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Friday, 14 April 2017

Hu Li Yang Gravity Line Investment Strategy


Hu Li Yang 30 Stock Investing Strategies
胡立阳投资股票三十招

What is a Gravity Line? 什么是地心引力线?
A stock's Gravity Line is the average between its 30-day moving average and 72-day moving average.
Gravity Line = (30-day SMA + 72-day SMA)/2
Why this weird number?
I have no idea, it was mentioned in HLY's book that he researched about it and found these 2 numbers gave the best results
一个股票的地心引力线是它的 (30日移动平均价 + 72日移动平均线)/2

Use of Gravity Line? 如何利用地心引力线投资?
1) When the stock price falls to 20% below Gravity Line and
2) Stock Volume greater than the average volume for the past 5 days
This is a signal that the falling trend has reversed and it is time to buy.
This means that the stock is heavily undervalued and the spike in volume could mean that someone has spotted this and is buying into the stock.

1)当股价已跌到低于地心引力线至少 20%
2)当天的交易量高于前5天的平均交易量
这是一个买入的信号。这代表股票已跌倒谷底,有行家正在大量买入,这是这股票将反弹的征兆。

What is a Taser Line? 什么是高压电线?
This is a price line that is 20% above the stock's Gravity Line
Taser Line = Gravity Line x 120%
A stock price that falls below this line tends to continue falling.
一个股票的高压电线是它的(地心引力线 x 120%)
当一个股价已从高于高压电线的价格区跌过它地高压电线,这代表这股票将会持续下滑。


Use of Taser Line? 如何利用高压电线投资?
1) When the Taser Line starts to go flat and
2) The stock price fall below the Taser line
This is a signal that the rising trend has reversed and it is time to sell.
Description: The stock price hits the Taser Line (because it rose too fast), hence it needs to fall back a little (attached by the Gravity Line below it)

1)当高压电线开始走平
2)股价从高于高压电线的价格区跌过它地高压电线
这是一个卖出的信号。这代表股价已到了最高点,开始要下滑了。

Wish to learn more techniques from the Master himself?
Join him in his upcoming seminar in Singapore!
想多向大师学习吗?机会来了! 胡立阳将在新加坡举办一场讲座会。

Hu Li Yang Investing Seminar 2017
胡立阳投资讲座 2017

Learning Points:
1) Is the current market condition suitable for investing or should I wait?
2) What techniques should I use if I wish to invest currently or in the future?
3) What strategies does Mr Hu use that I can use?
4) What temperament should I possess in order to succeed in the stock market?

Speaker: Mr Hu Li Yang (胡立阳先生)
The Godfather of Asian Stock market, Hu Li Yang, is back in Singapore to share with us his view on the investing opportunities and risks in year 2017! Spend 1 full day learning from the Man himself as he would discuss his views and how investors should position their portfolio for the rest of 2017!

Mr Hu previously held the position of Vice-President of Securities in Merrill Lynch in the 1980s, then the biggest securities firm in America. In 1986, he gave up his high paying job and return home to Taiwan to develop and educate its people on investing in the stock market. Since then, he has been regarded as the 'Godfather of Asian Stock Market' and has gone on to published best-selling books on stock market investing.

He accurately predicted that:
1) the Dow Jones Index will rebound on 2009 March,
2) the Taiwan stock market will exit a bear market on 2009 November,
3) Gold's temporary peak on 2009 December,
and many more!

拥有 ‘亚洲股市教父’ 和 ‘故事神童’ 职称的胡立阳回来了。在这次的讲座中,胡立阳将与你分享他对未来一年股市的动向和如何从中赚到钱。 除了与胡立阳老师有近距离接触之外,你也将学到他花了毕生心血专研出来的股票分析技巧和手法。

胡立阳曾是美林证券行的第一位华人副总裁,在 1986 年,他放弃了在美国的高薪职位,返回了台湾,并大力地推广台湾投资热潮和教育人们如何投资。从此以后,胡立阳就得到了 ’亚洲股市教父‘ 职称,也成功了推出很多关于投资的书。

胡立阳曾经成功的推测出许多股市中的低谷与高峰,比如说,2009年道琼斯和台湾股市从低谷反弹起来,2009年黄金价格已达高峰等。

Event Details:
Date: 8 April 2017, Saturday (4月8日2017年,星期六)
Location: Maybank Kim Eng 48 North Canal Road, Singapore 059305
Time: 10.00AM  6.30PM (registration starts from 9.30AM)
Price: $688 (U.P. $738)
The seminar will be conducted in Chinese

Click HERE to sign up for the event!
想参加这讲座会的请安这

Limited Seats Only! Sign Up Now!

Monday, 10 April 2017

Why is it call a Bull Market and a Bear Market?


Ever wondered why is a dropping market call a bear market and why is a rising market call a bull market?
There is no 100% confirmed story, but the one we present below is one that has been highly circulated over the years.
Apparently, it has something to do with the bears and bulls attack their prey.
Think for a moment how these animals attack their prey.

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Bull Market
How does a bull attack its prey?
It charges at it, the uses its horns to thrust its prey up.
The prey getting swing upwards is similar to a rising stock market - upwards

Bear Market
How does a bear attack its prey?
It swings its 2 arms down at the prey.
The prey gets hits downwards, similar to a dropping market - downwards

Yes! This is true!
You can Google why is it call a bull or bear market, or we can save you the trouble and you can read it from Investopedia

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Monday, 3 April 2017

Active or Passive Way of Investing?

Active Investing versus Passive Investing

This is the battle that is happening on Wall Street since 1975 when John C. Bogle started the first fund company, The Vanguard Group, in the United States (US) offering to mom-and-pop investors low-cost index funds that aim to mimic the US index returns and charge extremely low cost for it (like 0.1% of the asset per year).

Before 1975, active trading (or active fund management) was the only thing available to investors who wished to get someone to managed their money. These active funds seek to achieve above market returns for their investors, and in return they charge high fees (from 2% to 20% of the profits per year).

At the beginning, everyone was skeptical of the idea of an Index Fund, because it gives investors only market returns, not spectacular returns above the market rate. People are greedy and just cannot take it that they are going to get average returns. They want the big returns that active management promises.

Fast forward to 2017 today, 42 years since the first US index fund was launched, we have more than 1000 index funds in the world tracking different indexes, excluding index ETF that trades on the stock exchanges. Funds managed by these passive investment products/tools surpassed the amount managed by the actively-managed investment funds - investors are pulling funds out of these funds fast and investing them into index funds. This happened because the active funds are no longer able to provide above market returns after cost. It is becoming better to be average than to be sub-par.

However, that is not to say that active investing is dead. While many have failed, there are also those that have succeeded and are still doing relatively well. George Soros, Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett are just some examples of people who did really well actively investing their money.

What is Active Investing?
Active Investing means actively looking for good companies to invest in, hoping that it will perform better than the market and hence earn you a higher return. You can do this yourself or by hiring a professional money manager to do the job for you.

Basically, you are looking at all the stocks in the market and looking for undervalued companies to buy or overvalued companies to sell short. Instead of buying the whole market and achieving average returns, you hope to get above market returns by identifying and buying those companies that will outperform the average.

What is Passive Investing?
Passive Investing means passively investing your money in buying the entire market via an index (think S&P500). You do not care how each stock performs and you do not really care which company makes it into the index and which are dropped. All you need to know is that over the long term, the stock market is and will go up and that your money will grow with it - just not at an above the market rate.

You can do this yourself manually, buying up all stocks in the index in the proportion of their market capitalisation (you have to be very very rich to do that) and re-balance it yourself every half year or you can just invest in an index fund that is managed by a group of professional managers who charge really low fees (because they don't really need to do much except re-balancing the fund every half year).

With Passive Investing, you are not trying to find the needle in the haystack, you are buying the whole haystack. Instead of looking for a really good company, you buy all the companies because the majority of them are going to do well that they will cover the bad ones and also make you good returns.

S&P500 price chart from 1950 to 2013
Are you now slightly convinced that Passive Investing works?

What are the differences?
Personally, these are the difference to me

Active Investing VS Passive Investing

Active Investing (Self)Passive Investing
Monitoring Consistently monitoring of
stock performance

See at the start and close of the
market OR
don't even look at the market at all

Strategy Research, buy, then sell when
the time is correct

Buy and hold until you need money
then you sell

Aim
Beat the market before cost
Beat the market after cost

Get market returns before cost
Less than 1% below market returns
after cost
Lifestyle Quite stressful, especially if
you are losing money on
your positions

Sleeps like a dead log because over
the really long-term, you know your
money will grow

Fees
Incur lots of trading cost
If you are investing with a
fund, they charge a 2% asset
management fee and a 20%
cut on your profits

Less than 1% of your assets' price
Effort
Have to do your own trading
research and analysis, hence
more effort

No effort other than finding a low
cost index fund provider

Which do we suggest?
I would like to quote from a famous fund manager Kenneth L. Fisher, who have written many New York Times Best Seller Investment Books: "Active if you know what you are doing, passive if you do not!"
That being said, a lot of you will think that because I have read so much and attended so many courses, I will know what I am doing.
Not to rain on your parade, but there has been research that says that monkeys throwing throws darts at random stock tickers could actually outperform experts financial managers (I'm serious, you can Google it).

Active Trading vs Long-Term Investing

Peek into the minds of some of the great investors in Singapore and learn from them their investing style, their investment criteria, and their views on investing!

Learning Points:
1) Is active trading more superior or is passive investing more superior?
2) What techniques should I use if I am an active trader?
3) What strategies should I use if I am a passive investor?
4) What is the risk for each of the techniques and strategies I use?
5) How can I improve my techniques and strategies?

Speakers: 
Ronald K- Self-made millionaire investor
- Featured in Sunday Times twice for his approach to investing
Gabriel Yap - Executive Chairman of GCP Global
Kelvin Seetoh - Business Analyst of 81 Holdings

Event Details:
Date: 8 April 2016 (Saturday)
Location: MND Auditorium, 9 Maxwell Road, SG 069112
Time: 09.00AM  1.00PM (registration starts from 8.30AM)
Price: $10 

*Refreshments provided

Click HERE to sign up for the event!

Limited Seats Only! Sign Up Now!