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Sunday, 26 July 2015

Singapore GE effect on STI

14:03 Posted by szcszc 3 comments
If you had been reading the recent Singapore news, you must have realised that a big political event is about to happen: the next General Election. While I am not entirely into the politics, I feel that it does have an impact on the local economy and performance of the market. I went to take a further look into the past history of when GE was held and the STI's performance afterwards. This is what I found:


Credits: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESTI#symbol=%5ESTI;range=1d

The black lines mark the dates where the GE was held. Based on historical data, the GE is held often after a recent rally, with the exception of 2001 GE, the STI dived.



On a logical sense, any political party that is currently in control, would want to hold the next GE when the economy is performing well, or at least average. Such performance must also be recent. The reason for this is due to the recency effect. In psychology, the recency effect is termed as the principle where the most recently presented items or experiences will most likely be remembered best. Hence, it would be logical to present a report card that is decently scored to win votes. In this case, as of every topic relating to your own personal wealth, people would be less rational and use the general economic performance as an indicator to cast their votes.

I am not saying that the STI's upwards performance is limited due to the GE being held but it is imperative to note that there are some correlations on the STI's future performance based on historical data. Take it with a pinch of salt and judge it yourself.

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3 comments:

  1. Global macro seems to indicate things will be more volatile and likely worse going forward. Most governments will decide to have its election earlier than later in such macro condition.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Anon,

      Global events occurring are indeed making the markets more volatile. In such cases, governments would perceive it negatively and try to set the pace earlier on. Whether if it is heading south, we could only wait for time to tell.

      Delete
  2. The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Oil & Gas Index, which slipped 0.75%. Keppel Corp shares declined 1.31% and Sembcorp Industries declined 1.06%.

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